指数 · 美国国债 · 1871年起按月
1871年以来的美国政府债券
根据罗伯特·席勒的数据，10年期美国国债在利息再投资后的回报：按美元现价，打开开关后为扣除通胀后。附1871年以来的收益率，以及通胀造成的长期下跌。
自1月 1871起$1投入10年期国债，利息再投资
×1,009每年+4.5%
模拟的10年期国债，每月按当月收益率买入，数据来自罗伯特·席勒。不含费用和税费。
扣除通胀后
×37.5
每年+2.4%
同期消费者价格上涨×26.9。
截至10月 2026的12个月，利息再投资
−4.9%
距纪录−17.9%
10月 2025 → 10月 2026，按报价。 纪录：7月 2020。
10年期收益率 · 10月 2026
5.24%
平均4.5%
自1871起的平均值。最高15.32%（9月 1981），最低0.62%（7月 2020）。
扣除通胀后的最深跌幅
−58.2%
1月 1941 → 9月 1981; 纪录在8月 1986回来，历时45.6 年
155年后扣除通胀为$37.5自1871年1月起，$1投入利息再投资的10年期国债，按美元现价变成了$1,009（4.5%每年），扣除通胀后为$37.5（2.4%每年）。同样的$1投入股息再投资的S&P 500，扣除通胀后变成了$4.42万。
扣除通胀后损失58.2%，1941–1981从1941年1月到1981年9月，通胀和利率上升使债券的购买力下降了58.2%，而按现价计的指数变动为+176.1%。直到1986年8月，扣除通胀后才回到那一水平，距高点45.6 年。
按现价损失25.2%，2020–2023美元计价下的最大跌幅：从2020年7月到2023年10月，10年期收益率从0.62%升至4.80%；扣除通胀后，损失为37.0%。指数尚未重新创出纪录：2026年10月时比纪录低17.9%。
1871年以来的总回报
$1投入10年期国债，利息每月再投资后变成了多少，并与消费者价格（红线）对比。收益率上升会压低债券价格，收益率下降会推高债券价格；无论哪种情况，利息都会持续到账。
10年期国债，利息再投资消费者价格
扣除通胀后下跌20%或以上
通胀和利率上升每次使10年期国债的购买力减少20%或以上的情形，均从扣除通胀后的纪录起算。按美元现价计，指数曾1次跌到这一幅度：2020–2023。
较今日美元计的历史高点距名义纪录
| 峰值 | 谷底 | 扣除通胀后的跌幅 | 按美元现价 | 下跌历时 | 回到高点，扣除通胀后 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9月 1915 | 6月 1920 | −44.4% | +15.0% | 4.8 年 | 1月 1927历时11.3 年 |
| 1月 1941 | 9月 1981 | −58.2% | +176.1% | 40.7 年 | 8月 1986历时45.6 年 |
| 4月 2020 | 10月 2023 | −37.3% | −24.8% | 3.5 年 | 尚未现距高点−37.0%至今6.5 年 |
一轮下跌从纪录开始，从低于纪录20%处起算；指数在首次高于纪录的月份重新追平纪录。“按美元现价”：同一时期不考虑通胀。 数据：罗伯特·J·席勒，耶鲁大学 · 通胀：美国CPI，席勒的数据.
1871年以来的10年期收益率
10年期美国国债的收益率：自1953年4月起为月平均值；此前为席勒收集的长期政府债券每年一个历史数据，以直线连接。收益率在1981年9月达到峰值15.32%，在2020年7月触及谷底0.62%；自1871起的平均值为4.5%。收益率是一种利率，因此通胀开关不会改变它。
10年期收益率1871年以来的平均值，4.5%
按日历年的回报
利息再投资，从一年12月到下一年12月，按美元现价和扣除通胀后分别列出，并附12月的10年期收益率。
| 年份 | 10年期收益率，12月 | 总回报 | 扣除通胀后 | 消费者价格 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026* | 5.24% | −4.9% | −8.2% | +3.6% |
| 2025 | 4.14% | +6.5% | +3.7% | +2.7% |
| 2024 | 4.39% | +1.1% | −1.7% | +2.9% |
| 2023 | 4.02% | +0.5% | −2.7% | +3.4% |
| 2022 | 3.62% | −15.0% | −20.2% | +6.5% |
| 2021 | 1.47% | −3.6% | −10.0% | +7.0% |
| 2020 | 0.93% | +9.9% | +8.4% | +1.4% |
| 2019 | 1.86% | +11.3% | +8.8% | +2.3% |
| 2018 | 2.83% | −0.9% | −2.8% | +1.9% |
| 2017 | 2.40% | +3.2% | +1.0% | +2.1% |
| 2016 | 2.49% | −0.5% | −2.5% | +2.1% |
| 2015 | 2.24% | +1.8% | +1.1% | +0.7% |
| 2014 | 2.21% | +9.0% | +8.2% | +0.8% |
| 2013 | 2.90% | −7.9% | −9.3% | +1.5% |
| 2012 | 1.72% | +4.2% | +2.4% | +1.7% |
| 2011 | 1.98% | +15.2% | +11.9% | +3.0% |
| 2010 | 3.29% | +5.8% | +4.2% | +1.5% |
| 2009 | 3.59% | −6.7% | −9.2% | +2.7% |
| 2008 | 2.42% | +19.4% | +19.3% | +0.1% |
| 2007 | 4.10% | +8.6% | +4.4% | +4.1% |
| 2006 | 4.56% | +4.1% | +1.5% | +2.5% |
| 2005 | 4.47% | +2.3% | −1.1% | +3.4% |
| 2004 | 4.23% | +4.6% | +1.3% | +3.3% |
| 2003 | 4.27% | +1.9% | +0.0% | +1.9% |
| 2002 | 4.03% | +13.9% | +11.3% | +2.4% |
| 2001 | 5.09% | +6.3% | +4.7% | +1.6% |
| 2000 | 5.24% | +14.8% | +11.0% | +3.4% |
| 1999 | 6.28% | −6.7% | −9.2% | +2.7% |
| 1998 | 4.65% | +15.3% | +13.4% | +1.6% |
| 1997 | 5.81% | +10.5% | +8.6% | +1.7% |
更早的年份，1871–1996
| 年份 | 10年期收益率，12月 | 总回报 | 扣除通胀后 | 消费者价格 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 6.30% | +1.9% | −1.3% | +3.3% |
| 1995 | 5.71% | +24.3% | +21.2% | +2.5% |
| 1994 | 7.81% | −7.5% | −9.9% | +2.7% |
| 1993 | 5.77% | +14.1% | +11.1% | +2.7% |
| 1992 | 6.77% | +9.7% | +6.6% | +2.9% |
| 1991 | 7.09% | +15.9% | +12.4% | +3.1% |
| 1990 | 8.08% | +7.1% | +0.9% | +6.1% |
| 1989 | 7.84% | +18.5% | +13.2% | +4.6% |
| 1988 | 9.11% | +8.3% | +3.7% | +4.4% |
| 1987 | 8.99% | −4.6% | −8.6% | +4.4% |
| 1986 | 7.11% | +24.8% | +23.4% | +1.1% |
| 1985 | 9.26% | +27.6% | +22.9% | +3.8% |
| 1984 | 11.50% | +15.3% | +10.9% | +3.9% |
| 1983 | 11.83% | +3.3% | −0.5% | +3.8% |
| 1982 | 10.54% | +36.5% | +31.4% | +3.8% |
| 1981 | 13.72% | +9.1% | +0.2% | +8.9% |
| 1980 | 12.84% | −3.5% | −14.2% | +12.5% |
| 1979 | 10.39% | +0.5% | −11.3% | +13.3% |
| 1978 | 9.01% | −0.6% | −8.8% | +9.0% |
| 1977 | 7.69% | +1.6% | −4.8% | +6.7% |
| 1976 | 6.87% | +16.8% | +11.3% | +4.9% |
| 1975 | 8.00% | +4.0% | −2.7% | +6.9% |
| 1974 | 7.43% | +2.6% | −8.7% | +12.3% |
| 1973 | 6.74% | +4.1% | −4.3% | +8.7% |
| 1972 | 6.36% | +3.0% | −0.4% | +3.4% |
| 1971 | 5.93% | +9.9% | +6.5% | +3.3% |
| 1970 | 6.39% | +17.6% | +11.4% | +5.6% |
| 1969 | 7.65% | −5.0% | −10.5% | +6.2% |
| 1968 | 6.03% | +3.1% | −1.5% | +4.7% |
| 1967 | 5.70% | −1.6% | −4.5% | +3.0% |
| 1966 | 4.84% | +3.2% | −0.3% | +3.5% |
| 1965 | 4.62% | +0.7% | −1.2% | +1.9% |
| 1964 | 4.18% | +3.8% | +2.8% | +1.0% |
| 1963 | 4.13% | +1.8% | +0.1% | +1.6% |
| 1962 | 3.86% | +5.7% | +4.3% | +1.3% |
| 1961 | 4.06% | +2.1% | +1.4% | +0.7% |
| 1960 | 3.84% | +11.6% | +10.1% | +1.4% |
| 1959 | 4.69% | −2.4% | −4.1% | +1.7% |
| 1958 | 3.86% | −2.2% | −3.9% | +1.8% |
| 1957 | 3.21% | +7.0% | +4.0% | +2.9% |
| 1956 | 3.59% | −2.2% | −5.0% | +3.0% |
| 1955 | 2.96% | −1.1% | −1.5% | +0.4% |
| 1954 | 2.51% | +3.1% | +3.9% | −0.7% |
| 1953 | 2.59% | +4.9% | +4.1% | +0.7% |
| 1952 | 2.82% | +1.5% | +0.7% | +0.8% |
| 1951 | 2.67% | +1.6% | −4.2% | +6.0% |
| 1950 | 2.55% | +0.4% | −5.2% | +5.9% |
| 1949 | 2.32% | +2.4% | +4.5% | −2.1% |
| 1948 | 2.32% | +3.4% | +0.3% | +3.0% |
| 1947 | 2.42% | +0.7% | −7.4% | +8.8% |
| 1946 | 2.25% | +1.9% | −13.8% | +18.1% |
| 1945 | 2.21% | +3.9% | +1.6% | +2.2% |
| 1944 | 2.38% | +3.4% | +1.0% | +2.3% |
| 1943 | 2.48% | +2.4% | −0.5% | +3.0% |
| 1942 | 2.47% | +2.0% | −6.4% | +9.0% |
| 1941 | 2.42% | −1.8% | −10.7% | +9.9% |
| 1940 | 1.97% | +4.4% | +3.7% | +0.7% |
| 1939 | 2.22% | +3.7% | +3.7% | 0.0% |
| 1938 | 2.38% | +4.3% | +7.2% | −2.8% |
| 1937 | 2.57% | +3.6% | +0.8% | +2.9% |
| 1936 | 2.68% | +2.6% | +1.1% | +1.4% |
| 1935 | 2.66% | +4.2% | +1.1% | +3.0% |
| 1934 | 2.82% | +5.9% | +4.3% | +1.5% |
| 1933 | 3.14% | +5.1% | +4.3% | +0.8% |
| 1932 | 3.34% | +6.3% | +18.5% | −10.3% |
| 1931 | 3.65% | +0.8% | +11.2% | −9.3% |
| 1930 | 3.34% | +3.2% | +10.2% | −6.4% |
| 1929 | 3.32% | +5.8% | +5.2% | +0.6% |
| 1928 | 3.58% | +1.4% | +2.6% | −1.2% |
| 1927 | 3.33% | +3.7% | +6.1% | −2.3% |
| 1926 | 3.37% | +6.5% | +7.7% | −1.1% |
| 1925 | 3.70% | +5.4% | +1.9% | +3.5% |
| 1924 | 3.88% | +5.8% | +5.8% | 0.0% |
| 1923 | 4.08% | +6.6% | +4.2% | +2.4% |
| 1922 | 4.35% | +4.5% | +7.0% | −2.3% |
| 1921 | 4.37% | +11.0% | +24.4% | −10.8% |
| 1920 | 5.08% | +3.9% | +1.2% | +2.6% |
| 1919 | 4.93% | +1.3% | −11.5% | +14.5% |
| 1918 | 4.51% | +4.9% | −12.9% | +20.4% |
| 1917 | 4.54% | +1.8% | −13.8% | +18.1% |
| 1916 | 4.21% | +2.9% | −8.6% | +12.6% |
| 1915 | 4.07% | +5.7% | +3.6% | +2.0% |
| 1914 | 4.23% | +3.9% | +2.8% | +1.0% |
| 1913 | 4.18% | +6.4% | +3.2% | +3.0% |
| 1912 | 4.41% | +0.9% | −6.0% | +7.4% |
| 1911 | 4.01% | +3.8% | +6.0% | −2.1% |
| 1910 | 3.97% | +3.4% | +11.9% | −7.6% |
| 1909 | 3.90% | +2.8% | −7.0% | +10.5% |
| 1908 | 3.77% | +4.6% | +1.3% | +3.3% |
| 1907 | 3.85% | +2.1% | +4.3% | −2.1% |
| 1906 | 3.65% | +1.7% | −3.7% | +5.6% |
| 1905 | 3.43% | +3.9% | +3.9% | 0.0% |
| 1904 | 3.47% | +2.8% | −1.8% | +4.7% |
| 1903 | 3.39% | +2.5% | +8.5% | −5.6% |
| 1902 | 3.29% | +2.3% | −4.6% | +7.1% |
| 1901 | 3.17% | +2.6% | −2.3% | +5.0% |
| 1900 | 3.10% | +3.5% | +7.4% | −3.6% |
| 1899 | 3.15% | +2.9% | −11.9% | +16.9% |
| 1898 | 3.12% | +5.4% | +3.9% | +1.4% |
| 1897 | 3.35% | +4.0% | +4.0% | 0.0% |
| 1896 | 3.42% | +5.1% | +6.6% | −1.4% |
| 1895 | 3.59% | +2.6% | −0.2% | +2.9% |
| 1894 | 3.48% | +5.6% | +13.3% | −6.8% |
| 1893 | 3.70% | +4.1% | +12.5% | −7.5% |
| 1892 | 3.74% | +2.6% | +1.3% | +1.3% |
| 1891 | 3.60% | +3.7% | +8.9% | −4.8% |
| 1890 | 3.60% | +2.0% | +0.8% | +1.2% |
| 1889 | 3.42% | +3.9% | +10.2% | −5.7% |
| 1888 | 3.47% | +5.3% | +5.3% | 0.0% |
| 1887 | 3.66% | +2.4% | −3.5% | +6.1% |
| 1886 | 3.51% | +2.4% | +7.4% | −4.7% |
| 1885 | 3.38% | +4.8% | +6.0% | −1.1% |
| 1884 | 3.53% | +4.4% | +16.4% | −10.3% |
| 1883 | 3.62% | +3.8% | +12.3% | −7.6% |
| 1882 | 3.63% | +3.7% | +5.6% | −1.9% |
| 1881 | 3.63% | +4.6% | −2.2% | +7.0% |
| 1880 | 3.73% | +6.6% | +8.8% | −2.0% |
| 1879 | 4.04% | +5.9% | −10.7% | +18.6% |
| 1878 | 4.23% | +5.4% | +22.5% | −14.0% |
| 1877 | 4.35% | +5.4% | +19.2% | −11.5% |
| 1876 | 4.46% | +6.0% | +7.9% | −1.7% |
| 1875 | 4.63% | +9.0% | +14.6% | −5.0% |
| 1874 | 5.10% | +8.5% | +14.8% | −5.5% |
| 1873 | 5.48% | +6.3% | +13.0% | −5.9% |
| 1872 | 5.56% | +3.9% | +1.7% | +2.3% |
| 1871* | 5.36% | +4.7% | +3.1% | +1.5% |
* 1871从1月 1871起算，2026到10月 2026为止。消费者价格：美国CPI，12月对12月。
如何计算
- 数据：Robert J. Shiller，在线数据（耶鲁大学）：长期利率（10年期国债收益率，GS10，自1953年4月起按月；此前为来自历史资料的长期政府债券收益率，每年一个）以及自1871年1月起的美国消费者价格。
- 模拟指数，不是基金：每月按当月收益率以面值买入一只10年期国债，获得一个月的利息，并按下月收益率（剩余期限9年11个月）估值；利息再投资。这是席勒的方法，数字已与他本人的回报列核对。
- 不含成本：不含利息税、费用和买卖价差；真实的基金或债券梯队的回报会略低一些。
- 1953年4月之前每年一个收益率，在各年1月之间以直线连接：那些年份的月度波动和下跌在这里比实际情况要小。
- 扣除通胀后（页面顶部的开关）：每个数值都用美国消费者价格（CPI-U，来自席勒的数据）换算为10月 2026的美元：乘以10月 2026的CPI，再除以其所在月份的CPI。最新几个月为初步数据。
- 下跌：指数与迄今最高水平的距离，扣除通胀后（图表也显示按现价计的情况）；一轮下跌从低于纪录20%处起算，在首次高于纪录的月份结束。
- 日历年：12月对上一年12月（1871年从1月起算，当年到最新月份为止）；收益率为12月的数值。
- 不构成投资建议。过去的回报和过去的崩盘并不能说明接下来会发生什么。