Indices · US Treasury bonds · monthly since 1871
US government bonds since 1871
What 10-year US Treasury bonds returned with their interest reinvested, from Robert Shiller's data: in dollars as quoted and, on the switch, after inflation. With the yield since 1871 and the long falls that inflation brought.
A modelled 10-year Treasury bond bought every month at that month's yield, from Robert Shiller's data. No fees or taxes.
Consumer prices rose ×26.9 over the same years.
Oct 2025 → Oct 2026, as quoted. Record: Jul 2020.
Average since 1871. Highest 15.32% (Sep 1981), lowest 0.62% (Jul 2020).
Jan 1941 → Sep 1981; the record came back in Aug 1986, after 45.6 years
What would $1,000 put into 10-year Treasuries in January 1941 be worth today, after inflation? The Time Machine answers for any date.
Open the Time Machine$37.5 after inflation in 155 yearsSince January 1871 $1 in 10-year Treasuries with coupons reinvested became $1,009 in dollars as quoted (4.5% a year) and $37.5 after inflation (2.4% a year). The same $1 in the S&P 500 with dividends became $44.2K after inflation.
58.2% lost after inflation, 1941–1981From January 1941 to September 1981 inflation and rising rates cut what bonds could buy by 58.2%, while the index as quoted moved +176.1%. They were back at that level, after inflation, only in August 1986, 45.6 years after the peak.
25.2% lost as quoted, 2020–2023The deepest fall in dollars: from July 2020 to October 2023, as the 10-year yield went from 0.62% to 4.80%; after inflation, 37.0% was lost. The index has not regained its record yet: in October 2026 it was 17.9% below it.
Total return since 1871
What $1 in 10-year Treasuries became with the interest reinvested every month, next to consumer prices (red). Rising yields push bond prices down and falling yields lift them; the interest keeps coming either way.
Falls of 20% or more after inflation
Every time inflation and rising rates took 20% or more off the buying power of 10-year Treasuries, counted from a record after inflation. In dollars as quoted the index fell that much 1 time: 2020–2023.
| Peak | Bottom | Fall after inflation | In dollars as quoted | Fell for | Back at the peak, after inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1915 | Jun 1920 | −44.4% | +15.0% | 4.8 years | Jan 1927after 11.3 years |
| Jan 1941 | Sep 1981 | −58.2% | +176.1% | 40.7 years | Aug 1986after 45.6 years |
| Apr 2020 | Oct 2023 | −37.3% | −24.8% | 3.5 years | not yetnow −37.0% from the peak6.5 years so far |
A fall starts at a record and counts from 20% below it; the record is regained in the first month above it. “In dollars as quoted”: the same months without inflation. Data: Robert J. Shiller, Yale University · inflation: US CPI, Shiller's data.
The 10-year yield since 1871
The yield of a 10-year US Treasury bond: the monthly average since April 1953; before that one historical figure a year for long-term government bonds, as Shiller collected them, joined by straight lines. It peaked at 15.32% in September 1981 and bottomed at 0.62% in July 2020; the average since 1871 is 4.5%. A yield is a rate, so the inflation switch does not change it.
Returns by calendar year
With the interest reinvested, from one December to the next, in dollars as quoted and after inflation, with the 10-year yield in December.
| Year | 10-year yield, December | Total return | After inflation | Consumer prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026* | 5.24% | −4.9% | −8.2% | +3.6% |
| 2025 | 4.14% | +6.5% | +3.7% | +2.7% |
| 2024 | 4.39% | +1.1% | −1.7% | +2.9% |
| 2023 | 4.02% | +0.5% | −2.7% | +3.4% |
| 2022 | 3.62% | −15.0% | −20.2% | +6.5% |
| 2021 | 1.47% | −3.6% | −10.0% | +7.0% |
| 2020 | 0.93% | +9.9% | +8.4% | +1.4% |
| 2019 | 1.86% | +11.3% | +8.8% | +2.3% |
| 2018 | 2.83% | −0.9% | −2.8% | +1.9% |
| 2017 | 2.40% | +3.2% | +1.0% | +2.1% |
| 2016 | 2.49% | −0.5% | −2.5% | +2.1% |
| 2015 | 2.24% | +1.8% | +1.1% | +0.7% |
| 2014 | 2.21% | +9.0% | +8.2% | +0.8% |
| 2013 | 2.90% | −7.9% | −9.3% | +1.5% |
| 2012 | 1.72% | +4.2% | +2.4% | +1.7% |
| 2011 | 1.98% | +15.2% | +11.9% | +3.0% |
| 2010 | 3.29% | +5.8% | +4.2% | +1.5% |
| 2009 | 3.59% | −6.7% | −9.2% | +2.7% |
| 2008 | 2.42% | +19.4% | +19.3% | +0.1% |
| 2007 | 4.10% | +8.6% | +4.4% | +4.1% |
| 2006 | 4.56% | +4.1% | +1.5% | +2.5% |
| 2005 | 4.47% | +2.3% | −1.1% | +3.4% |
| 2004 | 4.23% | +4.6% | +1.3% | +3.3% |
| 2003 | 4.27% | +1.9% | +0.0% | +1.9% |
| 2002 | 4.03% | +13.9% | +11.3% | +2.4% |
| 2001 | 5.09% | +6.3% | +4.7% | +1.6% |
| 2000 | 5.24% | +14.8% | +11.0% | +3.4% |
| 1999 | 6.28% | −6.7% | −9.2% | +2.7% |
| 1998 | 4.65% | +15.3% | +13.4% | +1.6% |
| 1997 | 5.81% | +10.5% | +8.6% | +1.7% |
Earlier years, 1871–1996
| Year | 10-year yield, December | Total return | After inflation | Consumer prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 6.30% | +1.9% | −1.3% | +3.3% |
| 1995 | 5.71% | +24.3% | +21.2% | +2.5% |
| 1994 | 7.81% | −7.5% | −9.9% | +2.7% |
| 1993 | 5.77% | +14.1% | +11.1% | +2.7% |
| 1992 | 6.77% | +9.7% | +6.6% | +2.9% |
| 1991 | 7.09% | +15.9% | +12.4% | +3.1% |
| 1990 | 8.08% | +7.1% | +0.9% | +6.1% |
| 1989 | 7.84% | +18.5% | +13.2% | +4.6% |
| 1988 | 9.11% | +8.3% | +3.7% | +4.4% |
| 1987 | 8.99% | −4.6% | −8.6% | +4.4% |
| 1986 | 7.11% | +24.8% | +23.4% | +1.1% |
| 1985 | 9.26% | +27.6% | +22.9% | +3.8% |
| 1984 | 11.50% | +15.3% | +10.9% | +3.9% |
| 1983 | 11.83% | +3.3% | −0.5% | +3.8% |
| 1982 | 10.54% | +36.5% | +31.4% | +3.8% |
| 1981 | 13.72% | +9.1% | +0.2% | +8.9% |
| 1980 | 12.84% | −3.5% | −14.2% | +12.5% |
| 1979 | 10.39% | +0.5% | −11.3% | +13.3% |
| 1978 | 9.01% | −0.6% | −8.8% | +9.0% |
| 1977 | 7.69% | +1.6% | −4.8% | +6.7% |
| 1976 | 6.87% | +16.8% | +11.3% | +4.9% |
| 1975 | 8.00% | +4.0% | −2.7% | +6.9% |
| 1974 | 7.43% | +2.6% | −8.7% | +12.3% |
| 1973 | 6.74% | +4.1% | −4.3% | +8.7% |
| 1972 | 6.36% | +3.0% | −0.4% | +3.4% |
| 1971 | 5.93% | +9.9% | +6.5% | +3.3% |
| 1970 | 6.39% | +17.6% | +11.4% | +5.6% |
| 1969 | 7.65% | −5.0% | −10.5% | +6.2% |
| 1968 | 6.03% | +3.1% | −1.5% | +4.7% |
| 1967 | 5.70% | −1.6% | −4.5% | +3.0% |
| 1966 | 4.84% | +3.2% | −0.3% | +3.5% |
| 1965 | 4.62% | +0.7% | −1.2% | +1.9% |
| 1964 | 4.18% | +3.8% | +2.8% | +1.0% |
| 1963 | 4.13% | +1.8% | +0.1% | +1.6% |
| 1962 | 3.86% | +5.7% | +4.3% | +1.3% |
| 1961 | 4.06% | +2.1% | +1.4% | +0.7% |
| 1960 | 3.84% | +11.6% | +10.1% | +1.4% |
| 1959 | 4.69% | −2.4% | −4.1% | +1.7% |
| 1958 | 3.86% | −2.2% | −3.9% | +1.8% |
| 1957 | 3.21% | +7.0% | +4.0% | +2.9% |
| 1956 | 3.59% | −2.2% | −5.0% | +3.0% |
| 1955 | 2.96% | −1.1% | −1.5% | +0.4% |
| 1954 | 2.51% | +3.1% | +3.9% | −0.7% |
| 1953 | 2.59% | +4.9% | +4.1% | +0.7% |
| 1952 | 2.82% | +1.5% | +0.7% | +0.8% |
| 1951 | 2.67% | +1.6% | −4.2% | +6.0% |
| 1950 | 2.55% | +0.4% | −5.2% | +5.9% |
| 1949 | 2.32% | +2.4% | +4.5% | −2.1% |
| 1948 | 2.32% | +3.4% | +0.3% | +3.0% |
| 1947 | 2.42% | +0.7% | −7.4% | +8.8% |
| 1946 | 2.25% | +1.9% | −13.8% | +18.1% |
| 1945 | 2.21% | +3.9% | +1.6% | +2.2% |
| 1944 | 2.38% | +3.4% | +1.0% | +2.3% |
| 1943 | 2.48% | +2.4% | −0.5% | +3.0% |
| 1942 | 2.47% | +2.0% | −6.4% | +9.0% |
| 1941 | 2.42% | −1.8% | −10.7% | +9.9% |
| 1940 | 1.97% | +4.4% | +3.7% | +0.7% |
| 1939 | 2.22% | +3.7% | +3.7% | 0.0% |
| 1938 | 2.38% | +4.3% | +7.2% | −2.8% |
| 1937 | 2.57% | +3.6% | +0.8% | +2.9% |
| 1936 | 2.68% | +2.6% | +1.1% | +1.4% |
| 1935 | 2.66% | +4.2% | +1.1% | +3.0% |
| 1934 | 2.82% | +5.9% | +4.3% | +1.5% |
| 1933 | 3.14% | +5.1% | +4.3% | +0.8% |
| 1932 | 3.34% | +6.3% | +18.5% | −10.3% |
| 1931 | 3.65% | +0.8% | +11.2% | −9.3% |
| 1930 | 3.34% | +3.2% | +10.2% | −6.4% |
| 1929 | 3.32% | +5.8% | +5.2% | +0.6% |
| 1928 | 3.58% | +1.4% | +2.6% | −1.2% |
| 1927 | 3.33% | +3.7% | +6.1% | −2.3% |
| 1926 | 3.37% | +6.5% | +7.7% | −1.1% |
| 1925 | 3.70% | +5.4% | +1.9% | +3.5% |
| 1924 | 3.88% | +5.8% | +5.8% | 0.0% |
| 1923 | 4.08% | +6.6% | +4.2% | +2.4% |
| 1922 | 4.35% | +4.5% | +7.0% | −2.3% |
| 1921 | 4.37% | +11.0% | +24.4% | −10.8% |
| 1920 | 5.08% | +3.9% | +1.2% | +2.6% |
| 1919 | 4.93% | +1.3% | −11.5% | +14.5% |
| 1918 | 4.51% | +4.9% | −12.9% | +20.4% |
| 1917 | 4.54% | +1.8% | −13.8% | +18.1% |
| 1916 | 4.21% | +2.9% | −8.6% | +12.6% |
| 1915 | 4.07% | +5.7% | +3.6% | +2.0% |
| 1914 | 4.23% | +3.9% | +2.8% | +1.0% |
| 1913 | 4.18% | +6.4% | +3.2% | +3.0% |
| 1912 | 4.41% | +0.9% | −6.0% | +7.4% |
| 1911 | 4.01% | +3.8% | +6.0% | −2.1% |
| 1910 | 3.97% | +3.4% | +11.9% | −7.6% |
| 1909 | 3.90% | +2.8% | −7.0% | +10.5% |
| 1908 | 3.77% | +4.6% | +1.3% | +3.3% |
| 1907 | 3.85% | +2.1% | +4.3% | −2.1% |
| 1906 | 3.65% | +1.7% | −3.7% | +5.6% |
| 1905 | 3.43% | +3.9% | +3.9% | 0.0% |
| 1904 | 3.47% | +2.8% | −1.8% | +4.7% |
| 1903 | 3.39% | +2.5% | +8.5% | −5.6% |
| 1902 | 3.29% | +2.3% | −4.6% | +7.1% |
| 1901 | 3.17% | +2.6% | −2.3% | +5.0% |
| 1900 | 3.10% | +3.5% | +7.4% | −3.6% |
| 1899 | 3.15% | +2.9% | −11.9% | +16.9% |
| 1898 | 3.12% | +5.4% | +3.9% | +1.4% |
| 1897 | 3.35% | +4.0% | +4.0% | 0.0% |
| 1896 | 3.42% | +5.1% | +6.6% | −1.4% |
| 1895 | 3.59% | +2.6% | −0.2% | +2.9% |
| 1894 | 3.48% | +5.6% | +13.3% | −6.8% |
| 1893 | 3.70% | +4.1% | +12.5% | −7.5% |
| 1892 | 3.74% | +2.6% | +1.3% | +1.3% |
| 1891 | 3.60% | +3.7% | +8.9% | −4.8% |
| 1890 | 3.60% | +2.0% | +0.8% | +1.2% |
| 1889 | 3.42% | +3.9% | +10.2% | −5.7% |
| 1888 | 3.47% | +5.3% | +5.3% | 0.0% |
| 1887 | 3.66% | +2.4% | −3.5% | +6.1% |
| 1886 | 3.51% | +2.4% | +7.4% | −4.7% |
| 1885 | 3.38% | +4.8% | +6.0% | −1.1% |
| 1884 | 3.53% | +4.4% | +16.4% | −10.3% |
| 1883 | 3.62% | +3.8% | +12.3% | −7.6% |
| 1882 | 3.63% | +3.7% | +5.6% | −1.9% |
| 1881 | 3.63% | +4.6% | −2.2% | +7.0% |
| 1880 | 3.73% | +6.6% | +8.8% | −2.0% |
| 1879 | 4.04% | +5.9% | −10.7% | +18.6% |
| 1878 | 4.23% | +5.4% | +22.5% | −14.0% |
| 1877 | 4.35% | +5.4% | +19.2% | −11.5% |
| 1876 | 4.46% | +6.0% | +7.9% | −1.7% |
| 1875 | 4.63% | +9.0% | +14.6% | −5.0% |
| 1874 | 5.10% | +8.5% | +14.8% | −5.5% |
| 1873 | 5.48% | +6.3% | +13.0% | −5.9% |
| 1872 | 5.56% | +3.9% | +1.7% | +2.3% |
| 1871* | 5.36% | +4.7% | +3.1% | +1.5% |
* 1871 runs from Jan 1871, 2026 to Oct 2026. Consumer prices: US CPI from December to December.
How it is calculated
- Data: Robert J. Shiller, Online Data (Yale University): the long-term interest rate (the 10-year Treasury yield, GS10, monthly since April 1953; yields of long-term government bonds from historical sources before that, one a year) and US consumer prices, since January 1871.
- A modelled index, not a fund: each month a 10-year Treasury bond is bought at par at that month's yield, earns a month of interest and is valued at the next month's yield with 9 years and 11 months left; the interest is reinvested. This is Shiller's method, and the numbers are checked against his own return column.
- No costs: no taxes on the interest, no fees, no bid–ask spreads; a real fund or a ladder of bonds would have returned somewhat less.
- One yield a year before April 1953, joined by straight lines between Januaries: the monthly swings and falls of those years are smaller here than they really were.
- After inflation (the switch at the top of the page): every value is converted into October 2026 dollars with US consumer prices (CPI-U, from Shiller's data): multiplied by the CPI of October 2026 and divided by the CPI of its own month. The latest months are preliminary.
- Falls: the distance of the index from its highest level so far, after inflation (the chart also shows it as quoted); a fall counts from 20% below a record and ends in the first month above it.
- Calendar years: December against the December before (1871 from January, the current year to the latest month); the yield is December's.
- Not investment advice. Past returns, and past crashes, do not tell what will happen next.