指数 · 标普500 · 1871年1月以来按月
1871年以来的标普500历史
一个半世纪的美国股票尽收眼底:指数、股息带来的增益、每一次20%或以上的下跌、按年和按月的回报,以及席勒市盈率反映的估值。每个数字也都可以按扣除美国通胀后显示。
每日收盘价的月平均值,来自罗伯特·席勒的数据。不含费用和税收。
每日收盘价的月平均值;最新一个月为初步数据。纪录:7,723(10月 2026)。
9月 1929 → 6月 1932; 纪录在9月 1954回来,历时25年
自1881以来的平均值。价格与十年盈利之比,均已扣除通胀。
股息出了大部分力自1871年1月以来,指数上涨×1,739(每年4.9%)。股息再投资后,$1变成$119万(每年9.4%);扣除通胀后为$4.42万(每年7.1%)。
13次下跌,跌幅达20%或以上最深的一次:1929年9月至1932年6月下跌84.8%;指数直到1954年9月才回到纪录高点。最近的一次:2021–2022(20.3%)。
扣除通胀后:23.1 年才回来自1968年12月起,指数扣除通胀后到1982年7月下跌了62.6%,直到1992年1月才回到那个峰值;按报价美元计,在1972年3月就已再次高于它。
席勒市盈率为40.72026年10月,周期调整市盈率(CAPE)为40.7,自1881以来的平均值为17.8。只有在1999–2000和2026更高,并在1999年12月达到峰值44.2。
价格图表
逐月的指数。“含股息”显示$1在股息再投资后变成了多少(总回报指数),与仅指数并列。开启“扣除通胀后”时,一切均按10月 2026的美元计。
跌幅达20%或以上
自1871年以来,月平均值较其纪录下跌20%或以上共13次(扣除通胀后12次)。月平均值会抹平短暂的崩盘:按月平均值,2020年3月比纪录低19.1%,刚好未达本表标准。
| 峰值 | 峰值水平 | 谷底 | 谷底水平 | 跌幅 | 下跌历时 | 收复纪录 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4月 1872 | 5.18 | 6月 1877 | 2.73 | −47.3% | 5.2 年 | 2月 1880历时7.8 年 |
| 6月 1881 | 6.58 | 8月 1896 | 3.81 | −42.1% | 15.2 年 | 12月 1900历时19.5 年 |
| 9月 1902 | 8.85 | 10月 1903 | 6.26 | −29.3% | 13个月 | 3月 1905历时2.5 年 |
| 9月 1906 | 10.03 | 11月 1907 | 6.25 | −37.7% | 14个月 | 8月 1909历时2.9 年 |
| 12月 1909 | 10.30 | 8月 1921 | 6.45 | −37.4% | 11.7 年 | 1月 1925历时15.1 年 |
| 9月 1929 | 31.30 | 6月 1932 | 4.77 | −84.8% | 2.8 年 | 9月 1954历时25年 |
| 12月 1961 | 71.74 | 6月 1962 | 55.63 | −22.5% | 6个月 | 9月 1963历时21个月 |
| 12月 1968 | 106 | 6月 1970 | 75.59 | −29.0% | 18个月 | 3月 1972历时3.2 年 |
| 1月 1973 | 118 | 12月 1974 | 67.07 | −43.4% | 23个月 | 7月 1980历时7.5 年 |
| 8月 1987 | 329 | 12月 1987 | 241 | −26.8% | 4个月 | 7月 1989历时23个月 |
| 8月 2000 | 1,485 | 2月 2003 | 837 | −43.7% | 2.5 年 | 5月 2007历时6.8 年 |
| 10月 2007 | 1,540 | 3月 2009 | 757 | −50.8% | 17个月 | 3月 2013历时5.4 年 |
| 12月 2021 | 4,675 | 10月 2022 | 3,726 | −20.3% | 10个月 | 12月 2023历时2年 |
峰值和谷底均为每日收盘价的月平均值,因此个别日子曾更高或更低。纪录在平均值高于它的第一个月被视为收复。开启“扣除通胀后”时,本表按今天的美元重新计算。 数据:罗伯特·J·席勒,耶鲁大学 · 通胀:美国CPI,席勒的数据.
按日历年的回报
股息再投资,从一个12月的平均值到下一个,因此数字与通常引用的年末数据略有不同。红色柱表示亏损。
| 年份 | 12月平均 | 仅指数 | 含股息 | 消费者价格 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026* | 7,723 | +12.7% | +13.7% | +3.6% |
| 2025 | 6,853 | +14.0% | +15.4% | +2.7% |
| 2024 | 6,011 | +28.3% | +30.0% | +2.9% |
| 2023 | 4,685 | +19.7% | +21.7% | +3.4% |
| 2022 | 3,912 | −16.3% | −15.0% | +6.5% |
| 2021 | 4,675 | +26.5% | +28.3% | +7.0% |
| 2020 | 3,695 | +16.3% | +18.5% | +1.4% |
| 2019 | 3,177 | +23.7% | +26.2% | +2.3% |
| 2018 | 2,567 | −3.6% | −1.8% | +1.9% |
| 2017 | 2,664 | +18.6% | +20.9% | +2.1% |
| 2016 | 2,247 | +9.4% | +11.7% | +2.1% |
| 2015 | 2,054 | −0.0% | +2.0% | +0.7% |
| 2014 | 2,054 | +13.6% | +15.9% | +0.8% |
| 2013 | 1,808 | +27.1% | +29.7% | +1.5% |
| 2012 | 1,422 | +14.4% | +16.8% | +1.7% |
| 2011 | 1,243 | +0.1% | +2.1% | +3.0% |
| 2010 | 1,242 | +11.8% | +14.0% | +1.5% |
| 2009 | 1,110 | +26.5% | +30.0% | +2.7% |
| 2008 | 878 | −40.7% | −39.2% | +0.1% |
| 2007 | 1,479 | +4.4% | +6.3% | +4.1% |
| 2006 | 1,416 | +12.2% | +14.3% | +2.5% |
| 2005 | 1,262 | +5.2% | +7.1% | +3.4% |
| 2004 | 1,199 | +11.0% | +12.8% | +3.3% |
| 2003 | 1,081 | +20.2% | +22.3% | +1.9% |
| 2002 | 899 | −21.5% | −20.2% | +2.4% |
| 2001 | 1,145 | −14.0% | −12.8% | +1.6% |
| 2000 | 1,331 | −6.8% | −5.8% | +3.4% |
| 1999 | 1,429 | +20.1% | +21.6% | +2.7% |
| 1998 | 1,190 | +23.7% | +25.5% | +1.6% |
| 1997 | 962 | +29.5% | +31.8% | +1.7% |
更早的年份,1871–1996
| 年份 | 12月平均 | 仅指数 | 含股息 | 消费者价格 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 743 | +20.9% | +23.6% | +3.3% |
| 1995 | 615 | +35.0% | +38.4% | +2.5% |
| 1994 | 455 | −2.3% | +0.5% | +2.7% |
| 1993 | 466 | +7.0% | +10.0% | +2.7% |
| 1992 | 436 | +12.1% | +15.5% | +2.9% |
| 1991 | 389 | +18.2% | +22.1% | +3.1% |
| 1990 | 329 | −5.7% | −2.4% | +6.1% |
| 1989 | 349 | +26.1% | +30.2% | +4.6% |
| 1988 | 276 | +14.7% | +18.8% | +4.4% |
| 1987 | 241 | −3.1% | −0.1% | +4.4% |
| 1986 | 249 | +19.9% | +24.1% | +1.1% |
| 1985 | 207 | +26.0% | +31.4% | +3.8% |
| 1984 | 164 | +0.1% | +4.7% | +3.9% |
| 1983 | 164 | +17.9% | +23.2% | +3.8% |
| 1982 | 139 | +12.6% | +19.2% | +3.8% |
| 1981 | 124 | −7.3% | −2.5% | +8.9% |
| 1980 | 134 | +23.8% | +30.2% | +12.5% |
| 1979 | 108 | +12.2% | +18.2% | +13.3% |
| 1978 | 96.11 | +2.4% | +7.8% | +9.0% |
| 1977 | 93.82 | −10.4% | −6.3% | +6.7% |
| 1976 | 105 | +18.0% | +22.5% | +4.9% |
| 1975 | 88.70 | +32.2% | +38.0% | +6.9% |
| 1974 | 67.07 | −29.2% | −26.1% | +12.3% |
| 1973 | 94.78 | −19.3% | −16.9% | +8.7% |
| 1972 | 118 | +18.5% | +21.9% | +3.4% |
| 1971 | 99.17 | +10.1% | +13.7% | +3.3% |
| 1970 | 90.05 | −1.2% | +2.7% | +5.6% |
| 1969 | 91.11 | −14.5% | −11.7% | +6.2% |
| 1968 | 106 | +11.8% | +15.2% | +4.7% |
| 1967 | 95.30 | +17.2% | +20.9% | +3.0% |
| 1966 | 81.33 | −11.3% | −8.3% | +3.5% |
| 1965 | 91.73 | +9.3% | +12.5% | +1.9% |
| 1964 | 83.96 | +13.2% | +16.6% | +1.0% |
| 1963 | 74.17 | +18.4% | +22.2% | +1.6% |
| 1962 | 62.64 | −12.7% | −9.7% | +1.3% |
| 1961 | 71.74 | +26.3% | +30.1% | +0.7% |
| 1960 | 56.80 | −3.8% | −0.4% | +1.4% |
| 1959 | 59.06 | +10.4% | +13.9% | +1.7% |
| 1958 | 53.49 | +32.6% | +37.8% | +1.8% |
| 1957 | 40.33 | −13.2% | −9.7% | +2.9% |
| 1956 | 46.44 | +2.4% | +6.3% | +3.0% |
| 1955 | 45.37 | +29.7% | +35.0% | +0.4% |
| 1954 | 34.97 | +40.8% | +48.1% | −0.7% |
| 1953 | 24.83 | −4.6% | +1.0% | +0.7% |
| 1952 | 26.04 | +11.2% | +17.9% | +0.8% |
| 1951 | 23.41 | +18.5% | +26.8% | +6.0% |
| 1950 | 19.75 | +19.4% | +27.9% | +5.9% |
| 1949 | 16.54 | +8.9% | +16.5% | −2.1% |
| 1948 | 15.19 | +1.1% | +6.9% | +3.0% |
| 1947 | 15.03 | −0.7% | +4.5% | +8.8% |
| 1946 | 15.13 | −12.7% | −9.1% | +18.1% |
| 1945 | 17.33 | +32.3% | +38.1% | +2.2% |
| 1944 | 13.10 | +14.1% | +20.0% | +2.3% |
| 1943 | 11.48 | +20.6% | +27.0% | +3.0% |
| 1942 | 9.52 | +8.7% | +17.2% | +9.0% |
| 1941 | 8.76 | −16.8% | −10.7% | +9.9% |
| 1940 | 10.53 | −14.9% | −9.7% | +0.7% |
| 1939 | 12.37 | −2.5% | +2.0% | 0.0% |
| 1938 | 12.69 | +15.2% | +22.5% | −2.8% |
| 1937 | 11.02 | −35.4% | −31.9% | +2.9% |
| 1936 | 17.06 | +30.8% | +35.8% | +1.4% |
| 1935 | 13.04 | +40.8% | +47.0% | +3.0% |
| 1934 | 9.26 | −7.1% | −2.8% | +1.5% |
| 1933 | 9.97 | +46.2% | +54.4% | +0.8% |
| 1932 | 6.82 | −19.2% | −11.0% | −10.3% |
| 1931 | 8.44 | −45.6% | −41.8% | −9.3% |
| 1930 | 15.51 | −27.5% | −24.0% | −6.4% |
| 1929 | 21.40 | −7.6% | −4.2% | +0.6% |
| 1928 | 23.15 | +32.6% | +38.1% | −1.2% |
| 1927 | 17.46 | +29.4% | +35.8% | −2.3% |
| 1926 | 13.49 | +8.3% | +14.0% | −1.1% |
| 1925 | 12.46 | +22.6% | +29.2% | +3.5% |
| 1924 | 10.16 | +18.8% | +26.1% | 0.0% |
| 1923 | 8.55 | −2.6% | +3.5% | +2.4% |
| 1922 | 8.78 | +20.1% | +27.3% | −2.3% |
| 1921 | 7.31 | +7.3% | +15.2% | −10.8% |
| 1920 | 6.81 | −23.7% | −18.5% | +2.6% |
| 1919 | 8.92 | +12.9% | +20.2% | +14.5% |
| 1918 | 7.90 | +16.2% | +26.2% | +20.4% |
| 1917 | 6.80 | −30.6% | −25.2% | +18.1% |
| 1916 | 9.80 | +3.4% | +9.0% | +12.6% |
| 1915 | 9.48 | +29.0% | +35.8% | +2.0% |
| 1914 | 7.35 | −8.6% | −3.3% | +1.0% |
| 1913 | 8.04 | −14.3% | −9.3% | +3.0% |
| 1912 | 9.38 | +3.0% | +8.2% | +7.4% |
| 1911 | 9.11 | +0.7% | +5.9% | −2.1% |
| 1910 | 9.05 | −12.1% | −7.7% | −7.6% |
| 1909 | 10.30 | +14.1% | +19.1% | +10.5% |
| 1908 | 9.03 | +37.4% | +45.1% | +3.3% |
| 1907 | 6.57 | −33.2% | −29.5% | −2.1% |
| 1906 | 9.84 | +3.1% | +7.2% | +5.6% |
| 1905 | 9.54 | +15.6% | +19.8% | 0.0% |
| 1904 | 8.25 | +25.6% | +31.6% | +4.7% |
| 1903 | 6.57 | −18.4% | −14.4% | −5.6% |
| 1902 | 8.05 | +1.3% | +5.2% | +7.1% |
| 1901 | 7.95 | +15.7% | +20.4% | +5.0% |
| 1900 | 6.87 | +14.1% | +19.0% | −3.6% |
| 1899 | 6.02 | +6.5% | +10.1% | +16.9% |
| 1898 | 5.65 | +18.9% | +23.5% | +1.4% |
| 1897 | 4.75 | +12.6% | +17.2% | 0.0% |
| 1896 | 4.22 | −2.3% | +2.0% | −1.4% |
| 1895 | 4.32 | +0.5% | +5.0% | +2.9% |
| 1894 | 4.30 | −2.5% | +2.7% | −6.8% |
| 1893 | 4.41 | −20.0% | −15.7% | −7.5% |
| 1892 | 5.51 | +1.8% | +6.2% | +1.3% |
| 1891 | 5.41 | +17.6% | +22.9% | −4.8% |
| 1890 | 4.60 | −13.5% | −9.8% | +1.2% |
| 1889 | 5.32 | +3.5% | +8.0% | −5.7% |
| 1888 | 5.14 | −2.5% | +2.1% | 0.0% |
| 1887 | 5.27 | −6.6% | −2.5% | +6.1% |
| 1886 | 5.64 | +8.5% | +13.2% | −4.7% |
| 1885 | 5.20 | +19.8% | +27.2% | −1.1% |
| 1884 | 4.34 | −18.7% | −13.1% | −10.3% |
| 1883 | 5.34 | −8.6% | −3.1% | −7.6% |
| 1882 | 5.84 | −2.8% | +2.6% | −1.9% |
| 1881 | 6.01 | +2.9% | +7.8% | +7.0% |
| 1880 | 5.84 | +18.7% | +24.1% | −2.0% |
| 1879 | 4.92 | +42.6% | +49.4% | +18.6% |
| 1878 | 3.45 | +6.2% | +12.1% | −14.0% |
| 1877 | 3.25 | −9.2% | −2.0% | −11.5% |
| 1876 | 3.58 | −18.1% | −11.8% | −1.7% |
| 1875 | 4.37 | −3.7% | +3.3% | −5.0% |
| 1874 | 4.54 | +2.7% | +10.4% | −5.5% |
| 1873 | 4.42 | −12.8% | −6.9% | −5.9% |
| 1872 | 5.07 | +7.0% | +13.1% | +2.3% |
| 1871* | 4.74 | +6.8% | +12.3% | +1.5% |
* 1871自1月 1871起,2026至10月 2026。消费者价格:美国CPI,12月到12月,即每年回报必须跑赢的通胀。
按月的回报
股息再投资后,标普500在1869个月中有1179个月上涨(63%)。最好的月份是1932年8月(+51.3%),最差的是1929年11月(−26.2%)。
| 年份 | 1月 | 2月 | 3月 | 4月 | 5月 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | 9月 | 10月 | 11月 | 12月 | 全年 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +1.2% | −0.4% | −3.4% | +4.6% | +6.6% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +3.2% | −0.5% | +0.8% | +13.7%* | ||
| 2025 | −0.4% | +1.1% | −5.8% | −5.4% | +8.3% | +3.9% | +4.5% | +1.9% | +2.8% | +2.4% | +0.2% | +1.8% | +15.4% |
| 2024 | +2.9% | +4.2% | +3.3% | −1.0% | +2.5% | +3.6% | +2.4% | −1.0% | +2.7% | +3.2% | +2.5% | +1.5% | +30.0% |
| 2023 | +1.4% | +3.1% | −2.6% | +4.0% | +0.7% | +4.9% | +3.9% | −1.0% | −1.0% | −3.0% | +4.6% | +5.2% | +21.7% |
| 2022 | −2.1% | −2.9% | −0.9% | +0.1% | −7.9% | −3.4% | +0.5% | +6.4% | −7.3% | −3.1% | +5.3% | 0.0% | −15.0% |
| 2021 | +2.8% | +2.5% | +0.8% | +6.0% | +0.8% | +1.8% | +3.1% | +2.2% | −0.1% | +0.5% | +4.7% | +0.3% | +28.3% |
| 2020 | +3.3% | +0.1% | −18.9% | +4.3% | +5.9% | +6.5% | +3.5% | +5.9% | −0.6% | +1.7% | +4.0% | +4.3% | +18.5% |
| 2019 | +1.7% | +5.8% | +1.9% | +3.7% | −1.5% | +1.4% | +3.8% | −3.1% | +3.1% | 0.0% | +4.4% | +2.5% | +26.2% |
| 2018 | +4.9% | −2.9% | +0.1% | −1.7% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +1.6% | +2.5% | +1.7% | −3.8% | −2.1% | −5.6% | −1.8% |
| 2017 | +1.4% | +2.6% | +1.8% | −0.2% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.0% | +0.2% | +1.7% | +2.7% | +1.6% | +2.9% | +20.9% |
| 2016 | −6.4% | −0.5% | +6.4% | +2.8% | −0.3% | +1.1% | +3.3% | +1.2% | −0.4% | −0.5% | +1.2% | +3.9% | +11.7% |
| 2015 | −1.1% | +2.8% | +0.1% | +0.9% | +1.0% | −0.4% | −0.1% | −2.4% | −4.5% | +4.3% | +2.9% | −1.1% | +2.0% |
| 2014 | +1.0% | −0.1% | +2.7% | +0.2% | +1.5% | +3.2% | +1.5% | −0.4% | +1.8% | −2.6% | +5.7% | +0.6% | +15.9% |
| 2013 | +4.3% | +2.3% | +2.7% | +1.5% | +4.6% | −1.1% | +3.3% | +0.3% | +1.2% | +2.1% | +3.9% | +1.5% | +29.7% |
| 2012 | +4.8% | +4.2% | +2.9% | 0.0% | −3.1% | −1.2% | +2.9% | +3.4% | +3.0% | −0.2% | −2.8% | +2.2% | +16.8% |
| 2011 | +3.5% | +3.2% | −1.1% | +2.2% | +0.7% | −3.7% | +3.1% | −10.4% | −0.8% | +3.0% | +1.8% | +1.6% | +2.1% |
| 2010 | +1.4% | −2.9% | +5.9% | +4.1% | −5.9% | −3.5% | −0.2% | +0.9% | +3.4% | +4.6% | +2.5% | +3.7% | +14.0% |
| 2009 | −1.1% | −6.7% | −5.7% | +12.3% | +6.7% | +2.9% | +1.3% | +8.1% | +3.6% | +2.4% | +2.1% | +2.2% | +30.0% |
| 2008 | −6.6% | −1.6% | −2.6% | +4.2% | +2.6% | −4.2% | −6.1% | +2.1% | −4.8% | −20.2% | −8.6% | −0.4% | −39.2% |
| 2007 | +0.7% | +1.6% | −2.5% | +4.2% | +3.4% | +0.3% | +0.6% | −4.2% | +3.1% | +3.0% | −4.8% | +1.2% | +6.3% |
| 2006 | +1.5% | 0.0% | +1.5% | +0.8% | −0.8% | −2.7% | +0.7% | +2.3% | +2.5% | +3.6% | +2.0% | +2.1% | +14.3% |
| 2005 | −1.3% | +1.7% | −0.3% | −2.4% | +1.3% | +2.2% | +1.8% | +0.3% | +0.3% | −2.6% | +4.0% | +2.1% | +7.1% |
| 2004 | +4.9% | +1.1% | −1.6% | +1.0% | −2.6% | +2.9% | −2.2% | −1.4% | +2.8% | +0.1% | +4.8% | +2.7% | +12.8% |
| 2003 | −0.2% | −6.4% | +1.3% | +5.3% | +5.3% | +5.7% | +0.6% | −0.2% | +3.2% | +2.0% | +1.2% | +3.1% | +22.3% |
| 2002 | −0.3% | −3.4% | +4.9% | −3.5% | −2.8% | −5.9% | −10.8% | +1.1% | −4.8% | −1.4% | +6.6% | −1.0% | −20.2% |
| 2001 | +0.5% | −2.1% | −9.1% | +0.4% | +6.9% | −2.4% | −2.7% | −2.0% | −11.2% | +3.2% | +5.1% | +1.5% | −12.8% |
| 2000 | −0.1% | −2.5% | +3.9% | +1.4% | −2.8% | +3.2% | +0.8% | +0.9% | −1.1% | −5.2% | −0.8% | −3.3% | −5.8% |
| 1999 | +5.0% | −0.1% | +2.9% | +4.3% | −0.1% | −0.6% | +4.5% | −3.8% | −0.6% | −1.3% | +7.1% | +2.8% | +21.6% |
| 1998 | +0.2% | +6.4% | +5.3% | +3.4% | −0.2% | +0.1% | +4.5% | −7.0% | −4.9% | +1.3% | +11.0% | +4.1% | +25.5% |
| 1997 | +3.3% | +4.4% | −0.6% | −3.4% | +9.2% | +5.3% | +5.7% | +0.3% | +1.2% | +1.6% | −1.2% | +2.6% | +31.8% |
更早的年份,1871–1996
| 年份 | 1月 | 2月 | 3月 | 4月 | 5月 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | 9月 | 10月 | 11月 | 12月 | 全年 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | +0.2% | +5.9% | −0.2% | +0.2% | +2.4% | +1.3% | −3.5% | +3.1% | +2.0% | +4.1% | +5.1% | +1.2% | +23.6% |
| 1995 | +2.5% | +3.8% | +2.6% | +3.2% | +3.3% | +3.2% | +3.5% | +0.5% | +3.7% | +0.9% | +2.4% | +3.4% | +38.4% |
| 1994 | +1.7% | −0.1% | −1.4% | −3.3% | +1.1% | +1.1% | −0.5% | +3.1% | +0.8% | −0.4% | −0.4% | −1.0% | +0.5% |
| 1993 | +0.1% | +1.7% | +2.2% | −1.3% | +0.7% | +0.9% | +0.1% | +1.8% | +1.4% | +1.2% | 0.0% | +0.9% | +10.0% |
| 1992 | +7.4% | −0.6% | −1.0% | +0.3% | +2.1% | −1.3% | +1.9% | +0.9% | +0.4% | −1.2% | +2.8% | +3.3% | +15.5% |
| 1991 | −0.7% | +11.6% | +3.0% | +2.3% | −0.2% | +0.3% | +0.8% | +2.7% | −0.3% | +0.2% | 0.0% | +0.9% | +22.1% |
| 1990 | −2.2% | −2.5% | +2.7% | +0.2% | +3.9% | +3.2% | +0.2% | −7.9% | −4.3% | −2.3% | +3.0% | +4.6% | −2.4% |
| 1989 | +3.5% | +3.3% | −0.2% | +3.6% | +4.1% | +3.4% | +2.8% | +4.7% | +0.5% | +0.3% | −1.8% | +2.7% | +30.2% |
| 1988 | +4.2% | +3.3% | +3.2% | −0.9% | −2.2% | +6.0% | −0.3% | −1.7% | +1.9% | +3.8% | −2.0% | +2.3% | +18.8% |
| 1987 | +6.7% | +6.5% | +4.4% | −0.9% | +0.2% | +4.5% | +3.1% | +6.5% | −3.0% | −11.9% | −12.3% | −1.3% | −0.1% |
| 1986 | +0.8% | +5.7% | +6.2% | +2.7% | +0.5% | +3.1% | −1.8% | +2.3% | −2.5% | −0.1% | +3.5% | +1.7% | +24.1% |
| 1985 | +4.7% | +5.8% | −0.5% | +1.0% | +2.7% | +2.5% | +2.2% | −1.8% | −1.9% | +1.5% | +6.4% | +5.3% | +31.4% |
| 1984 | +1.6% | −5.1% | +0.4% | +0.5% | −0.3% | −1.8% | −0.9% | +9.2% | +1.4% | −0.4% | +1.3% | −0.7% | +4.7% |
| 1983 | +3.9% | +2.1% | +3.9% | +4.2% | +4.4% | +1.8% | +0.7% | −2.4% | +3.3% | +0.6% | −1.1% | −0.1% | +23.2% |
| 1982 | −4.8% | −1.9% | −2.7% | +5.5% | +0.6% | −5.3% | +0.2% | +0.8% | +12.1% | +8.9% | +4.5% | +1.4% | +19.2% |
| 1981 | 0.0% | −3.1% | +4.1% | +1.3% | −1.6% | +0.9% | −2.0% | +0.8% | −8.3% | +1.7% | +3.0% | +1.2% | −2.5% |
| 1980 | +3.3% | +4.4% | −8.8% | −1.2% | +5.0% | +6.9% | +5.0% | +3.5% | +2.8% | +3.3% | +4.6% | −1.2% | +30.2% |
| 1979 | +4.2% | −1.1% | +2.3% | +2.4% | −1.9% | +2.4% | +1.4% | +5.0% | +1.5% | −3.3% | −0.3% | +4.4% | +18.2% |
| 1978 | −3.4% | −1.0% | +0.3% | +4.8% | +5.5% | +0.7% | −0.1% | +7.3% | +0.4% | −2.8% | −5.4% | +1.9% | +7.8% |
| 1977 | −0.5% | −2.4% | −0.1% | −1.2% | +0.1% | +0.9% | +1.3% | −2.1% | −1.2% | −2.2% | +1.0% | −0.1% | −6.3% |
| 1976 | +9.5% | +4.2% | +0.8% | +1.1% | −0.4% | +0.9% | +2.7% | −0.6% | +2.4% | −3.1% | −0.4% | +3.8% | +22.5% |
| 1975 | +8.6% | +10.8% | +5.0% | +1.5% | +6.7% | +2.9% | +0.4% | −7.0% | −0.9% | +5.0% | +2.0% | −1.2% | +38.0% |
| 1974 | +1.7% | −2.5% | +4.6% | −4.8% | −2.7% | +0.5% | −11.3% | −3.8% | −10.0% | +2.4% | +3.7% | −6.1% | −26.1% |
| 1973 | +1.0% | −3.3% | −1.3% | −1.6% | −2.6% | −2.0% | +1.2% | −1.6% | +2.0% | +4.2% | −6.9% | −6.8% | −16.9% |
| 1972 | +4.4% | +2.1% | +2.6% | +1.3% | −0.8% | +0.5% | −0.5% | +3.8% | −1.2% | +0.4% | +5.3% | +2.3% | +21.9% |
| 1971 | +4.1% | +4.2% | +2.8% | +3.7% | −1.1% | −1.6% | −0.5% | −1.5% | +2.5% | −1.9% | −4.4% | +7.2% | +13.7% |
| 1970 | −0.6% | −3.2% | +2.0% | −2.7% | −11.2% | −0.3% | +0.5% | +3.3% | +6.3% | +2.5% | +0.2% | +7.2% | +2.7% |
| 1969 | −4.0% | −0.2% | −1.9% | +2.3% | +3.5% | −5.0% | −4.2% | −0.3% | +0.6% | +1.3% | +1.0% | −5.0% | −11.7% |
| 1968 | 0.0% | −4.3% | −1.6% | +7.7% | +2.6% | +2.9% | 0.0% | −1.9% | +3.5% | +2.7% | +1.8% | +1.3% | +15.2% |
| 1967 | +4.1% | +3.7% | +2.6% | +2.0% | +2.1% | −1.0% | +2.0% | +1.9% | +1.7% | +0.1% | −2.9% | +3.1% | +20.9% |
| 1966 | +2.0% | −0.4% | −3.9% | +3.3% | −5.0% | −0.6% | 0.0% | −5.8% | −3.2% | −0.6% | +5.3% | +0.7% | −8.3% |
| 1965 | +2.8% | +1.0% | +0.3% | +1.6% | +1.7% | −4.5% | +0.1% | +2.1% | +3.6% | +2.5% | +1.1% | −0.2% | +12.5% |
| 1964 | +3.3% | +1.5% | +2.1% | +1.7% | +1.2% | −0.3% | +4.0% | −1.2% | +2.0% | +2.0% | +0.9% | −1.5% | +16.6% |
| 1963 | +4.1% | +1.6% | −0.1% | +5.0% | +2.3% | +0.2% | −1.2% | +3.0% | +2.9% | +0.5% | −0.3% | +2.4% | +22.2% |
| 1962 | −3.5% | +1.9% | +0.3% | −2.9% | −7.2% | −11.4% | +2.7% | +3.0% | −0.6% | −2.9% | +7.2% | +4.6% | −9.7% |
| 1961 | +5.4% | +4.4% | +3.4% | +2.9% | +1.3% | −1.1% | 0.0% | +3.8% | −0.5% | +1.3% | +4.8% | +1.2% | +30.1% |
| 1960 | −1.5% | −3.6% | −1.1% | +1.6% | −0.6% | +4.0% | −2.2% | +1.5% | −2.7% | −1.7% | +3.5% | +2.7% | −0.4% |
| 1959 | +4.3% | −1.3% | +2.8% | +1.9% | +1.8% | −0.6% | +4.2% | −0.3% | −3.7% | +0.2% | +0.7% | +3.5% | +13.9% |
| 1958 | +2.3% | +0.7% | +2.4% | +0.9% | +3.6% | +2.7% | +3.1% | +4.1% | +2.9% | +4.4% | +3.3% | +2.2% | +37.8% |
| 1957 | −1.9% | −4.0% | +1.6% | +2.6% | +4.2% | +2.0% | +2.3% | −5.2% | −3.7% | −5.9% | −1.8% | +0.3% | −9.7% |
| 1956 | −2.4% | +1.0% | +7.2% | +1.5% | −2.8% | −0.3% | +5.8% | −0.3% | −3.1% | −1.0% | −0.7% | +1.8% | +6.3% |
| 1955 | +2.2% | +3.7% | −0.4% | +3.8% | −0.1% | +6.1% | +7.6% | −0.3% | +4.8% | −4.7% | +7.1% | +1.2% | +35.0% |
| 1954 | +3.0% | +2.7% | +2.6% | +4.4% | +4.4% | +1.2% | +4.5% | +2.4% | +2.7% | +2.7% | +4.3% | +5.0% | +48.1% |
| 1953 | +1.0% | −0.8% | +1.0% | −4.5% | +1.0% | −3.1% | +1.9% | +0.9% | −4.1% | +3.5% | +2.7% | +1.8% | +1.0% |
| 1952 | +3.8% | −1.3% | +0.8% | +0.2% | +0.5% | +3.2% | +3.4% | +0.9% | −1.1% | −1.6% | +3.7% | +4.5% | +17.9% |
| 1951 | +8.0% | +4.3% | −1.1% | +1.9% | +0.6% | −1.1% | +2.4% | +5.0% | +3.1% | 0.0% | −2.3% | +3.6% | +26.8% |
| 1950 | +2.6% | +2.5% | +1.4% | +3.4% | +3.9% | +2.2% | −6.7% | +6.7% | +4.1% | +4.7% | +0.4% | +0.2% | +27.9% |
| 1949 | +1.6% | −3.3% | +1.5% | +0.4% | −0.2% | −4.9% | +6.3% | +4.2% | +1.9% | +3.2% | +2.0% | +3.3% | +16.5% |
| 1948 | −0.9% | −4.4% | +1.9% | +8.2% | +5.3% | +4.6% | −2.0% | −2.5% | −0.7% | +3.2% | −5.1% | −0.1% | +6.9% |
| 1947 | +0.9% | +4.3% | −3.7% | −3.3% | −1.4% | +3.9% | +6.7% | −1.6% | −2.2% | +3.0% | −0.7% | −1.1% | +4.5% |
| 1946 | +4.3% | +0.6% | −2.7% | +6.8% | +0.5% | −0.3% | −2.5% | −1.6% | −14.4% | −1.9% | 0.0% | +3.4% | −9.1% |
| 1945 | +3.4% | +3.7% | +0.3% | +2.9% | +4.2% | +2.2% | −1.7% | +0.7% | +7.2% | +4.5% | +3.6% | +2.0% | +38.1% |
| 1944 | +3.7% | −0.2% | +3.2% | −1.3% | +2.2% | +5.1% | +3.0% | −1.1% | −1.2% | +2.9% | −0.3% | +2.6% | +20.0% |
| 1943 | +6.5% | +6.4% | +4.0% | +3.8% | +4.4% | +2.2% | +2.5% | −4.5% | +2.6% | −0.5% | −4.2% | +1.8% | +27.0% |
| 1942 | +2.6% | −2.5% | −4.8% | −3.5% | +1.9% | +5.7% | +4.4% | 0.0% | +1.6% | +8.0% | +2.1% | +1.0% | +17.2% |
| 1941 | +0.7% | −5.7% | +1.2% | −2.5% | −1.6% | +4.1% | +5.7% | +0.1% | +0.9% | −3.4% | −4.1% | −5.9% | −10.7% |
| 1940 | −0.1% | −0.2% | −0.1% | +1.4% | −13.3% | −8.1% | +3.9% | +2.7% | +4.8% | +1.5% | +2.9% | −3.6% | −9.7% |
| 1939 | −1.2% | −0.5% | +0.3% | −12.2% | +4.1% | +2.2% | +2.8% | −1.1% | +11.1% | +1.4% | −1.4% | −2.0% | +2.0% |
| 1938 | +3.2% | −1.8% | −6.0% | −3.5% | +1.5% | +2.9% | +20.5% | +1.0% | −4.1% | +11.6% | +0.4% | −2.6% | +22.5% |
| 1937 | +3.5% | +3.3% | +0.2% | −5.6% | −4.1% | −3.3% | +6.4% | +1.4% | −13.8% | −14.1% | −8.3% | −1.0% | −31.9% |
| 1936 | +5.8% | +6.0% | +2.4% | +0.4% | −5.0% | +4.6% | +6.2% | +2.3% | +1.5% | +5.6% | +3.1% | −1.4% | +35.8% |
| 1935 | +0.4% | −2.6% | −5.9% | +7.9% | +8.3% | +4.2% | +5.6% | +7.1% | +2.4% | +3.0% | +9.7% | +0.3% | +47.0% |
| 1934 | +6.1% | +7.7% | −4.8% | +2.0% | −9.8% | +1.7% | −4.4% | −3.5% | −2.0% | +1.2% | +3.2% | +1.1% | −2.8% |
| 1933 | +4.6% | −11.3% | +0.3% | +11.2% | +29.3% | +17.6% | +8.5% | −4.6% | −0.5% | −9.4% | +2.8% | +2.3% | +54.4% |
| 1932 | −0.9% | −0.1% | +1.1% | −23.3% | −11.3% | −12.4% | +6.1% | +51.3% | +10.3% | −13.2% | −0.4% | −2.7% | −11.0% |
| 1931 | +3.5% | +8.1% | +2.4% | −9.1% | −9.2% | −2.7% | +3.8% | −2.5% | −14.4% | −12.8% | +2.0% | −18.1% | −41.8% |
| 1930 | +1.8% | +6.6% | +4.1% | +6.7% | −5.7% | −9.8% | −1.8% | −0.9% | +0.3% | −13.4% | −6.8% | −6.2% | −24.0% |
| 1929 | +7.7% | +0.8% | +2.1% | −0.3% | +1.8% | +2.2% | +9.2% | +6.0% | +4.2% | −10.3% | −26.2% | +4.4% | −4.2% |
| 1928 | +0.8% | −0.8% | +5.7% | +6.7% | +3.4% | −4.6% | +1.1% | +3.6% | +7.4% | +2.4% | +7.1% | +0.7% | +38.1% |
| 1927 | −0.2% | +2.4% | +2.0% | +2.9% | +3.9% | +1.7% | +2.6% | +5.7% | +6.1% | −1.2% | +2.7% | +2.7% | +35.8% |
| 1926 | +1.9% | +0.6% | −6.4% | −2.3% | +1.2% | +5.2% | +4.7% | +4.4% | +1.9% | −1.8% | +1.7% | +2.7% | +14.0% |
| 1925 | +4.6% | +1.3% | −2.2% | −0.6% | +3.7% | +2.2% | +3.2% | +1.8% | +2.7% | +3.7% | +3.5% | +2.0% | +29.2% |
| 1924 | +3.8% | +1.0% | −1.4% | −1.8% | +0.2% | +2.4% | +5.2% | +3.9% | −0.5% | −0.8% | +6.1% | +5.9% | +26.1% |
| 1923 | +1.9% | +4.8% | +2.1% | −3.0% | −4.3% | −3.3% | −2.8% | +1.0% | +1.2% | −0.9% | +3.5% | +3.9% | +3.5% |
| 1922 | +0.4% | +2.7% | +4.3% | +6.6% | +4.4% | −0.5% | +1.2% | +4.2% | +3.1% | +2.7% | −4.5% | +0.3% | +27.3% |
| 1921 | +5.0% | −0.1% | −2.0% | +1.0% | +3.6% | −7.4% | +0.3% | −0.6% | +3.1% | +2.0% | +6.0% | +4.1% | +15.2% |
| 1920 | −0.5% | −7.8% | +7.6% | −0.3% | −5.8% | −1.2% | +0.4% | −3.4% | +4.1% | +0.7% | −4.5% | −8.4% | −18.5% |
| 1919 | 0.0% | +1.0% | +3.6% | +3.9% | +7.5% | +3.2% | +3.8% | −6.3% | +2.1% | +5.6% | −2.5% | −2.5% | +20.2% |
| 1918 | +6.9% | +3.8% | −1.3% | −0.2% | +3.9% | +0.8% | +1.5% | +1.6% | +0.1% | +4.9% | +3.2% | −1.4% | +26.2% |
| 1917 | −1.9% | −5.1% | +3.6% | −1.0% | −2.8% | +2.6% | −2.2% | −2.3% | −4.2% | −4.7% | −7.6% | −2.6% | −25.2% |
| 1916 | −1.2% | −1.0% | +0.1% | −0.7% | +2.6% | +1.4% | −0.9% | +1.2% | +4.6% | +3.6% | +2.8% | −3.6% | +9.0% |
| 1915 | +2.2% | −0.9% | +3.1% | +8.0% | −1.9% | +1.6% | +0.1% | +4.7% | +4.1% | +6.0% | +3.9% | +0.6% | +35.8% |
| 1914 | +4.6% | +1.8% | −1.4% | −1.9% | +1.1% | 0.0% | −5.1% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +0.5% | −3.8% | −3.3% |
| 1913 | −0.4% | −3.1% | −1.4% | +0.3% | −2.3% | −4.6% | +1.8% | +3.2% | +1.4% | −2.7% | −2.1% | +0.4% | −9.3% |
| 1912 | +0.5% | −0.4% | +3.3% | +3.5% | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +2.7% | +0.9% | +0.2% | −0.7% | −3.2% | +8.2% |
| 1911 | +2.9% | +2.1% | −0.8% | 0.0% | +2.6% | +2.4% | 0.0% | −4.4% | −5.0% | +1.0% | +4.5% | +0.9% | +5.9% |
| 1910 | −1.8% | −3.2% | +2.9% | −2.0% | −1.3% | −4.4% | −4.6% | +2.9% | +1.1% | +5.0% | +0.3% | −2.4% | −7.7% |
| 1909 | +0.7% | −2.5% | +1.8% | +4.9% | +3.7% | +2.1% | +1.8% | +2.8% | +0.5% | +0.7% | −0.1% | +1.5% | +19.1% |
| 1908 | +4.8% | −3.1% | +4.6% | +5.9% | +5.9% | +0.6% | +4.1% | +4.7% | −0.7% | +1.6% | +7.2% | +2.6% | +45.1% |
| 1907 | −2.5% | −2.8% | −9.5% | +0.9% | −3.0% | −2.8% | +4.3% | −7.1% | −0.6% | −10.4% | −5.3% | +5.7% | −29.5% |
| 1906 | +3.8% | −0.4% | −2.2% | −1.1% | −2.3% | +1.6% | −2.2% | +7.7% | +3.4% | −2.7% | +2.4% | −0.6% | +7.2% |
| 1905 | +2.5% | +4.7% | +3.1% | −0.9% | −4.6% | +1.5% | +3.5% | +4.0% | +0.6% | +1.7% | −0.2% | +2.8% | +19.8% |
| 1904 | +2.1% | −2.3% | +0.1% | +2.9% | −1.7% | +0.6% | +4.6% | +3.8% | +4.8% | +6.2% | +5.8% | +1.3% | +31.6% |
| 1903 | +5.4% | −0.3% | −3.6% | −3.7% | −1.6% | −5.2% | −4.2% | −2.8% | −2.0% | −2.8% | +0.8% | +5.1% | −14.4% |
| 1902 | +2.5% | +1.2% | +0.5% | +3.7% | +0.1% | −0.3% | +2.6% | +3.0% | +0.5% | −2.9% | −3.5% | −2.0% | +5.2% |
| 1901 | +3.3% | +2.9% | +3.9% | +8.7% | −4.7% | +10.3% | −6.4% | +1.7% | −0.2% | −0.8% | +2.5% | −1.3% | +20.4% |
| 1900 | +1.6% | +2.1% | +1.1% | +1.6% | −4.4% | −2.6% | +0.4% | +1.7% | −2.0% | +4.0% | +8.2% | +6.4% | +19.0% |
| 1899 | +7.9% | +4.1% | +1.7% | +1.5% | −3.9% | −2.0% | +3.7% | +2.8% | −0.8% | −0.2% | +2.2% | −6.5% | +10.1% |
| 1898 | +3.1% | +0.1% | −4.2% | −1.4% | +6.9% | +4.2% | +0.7% | +4.1% | +0.1% | −1.8% | +3.6% | +6.5% | +23.5% |
| 1897 | +0.4% | −0.6% | +0.6% | −2.7% | +0.9% | +5.0% | +4.8% | +6.8% | +5.2% | −2.9% | −3.2% | +2.5% | +17.2% |
| 1896 | −0.8% | +4.6% | −1.2% | +1.3% | −0.1% | −1.5% | −6.1% | −5.3% | +5.6% | +2.6% | +7.2% | −3.3% | +2.0% |
| 1895 | −0.8% | −1.0% | +0.4% | +4.7% | +5.9% | +2.3% | +0.8% | +1.8% | +1.0% | −1.1% | −3.0% | −5.5% | +5.0% |
| 1894 | −1.6% | +1.9% | +3.4% | +1.8% | −3.3% | −0.9% | −1.6% | +4.2% | +2.0% | −2.7% | +0.4% | −0.5% | +2.7% |
| 1893 | +2.2% | −1.4% | −3.3% | +0.4% | −8.5% | −4.3% | −8.9% | −1.9% | +7.6% | +3.4% | +2.0% | −3.0% | −15.7% |
| 1892 | +2.2% | +0.5% | +1.4% | +0.2% | +0.3% | −0.2% | +0.3% | +1.8% | −2.1% | +2.4% | 0.0% | −0.7% | +6.2% |
| 1891 | +5.6% | +1.6% | −1.5% | +3.7% | 0.0% | −1.6% | −1.3% | +3.7% | +8.5% | +0.3% | −1.2% | +3.4% | +22.9% |
| 1890 | +1.5% | −0.8% | −0.4% | +2.4% | +4.6% | −0.4% | −0.4% | −2.0% | −1.3% | −4.2% | −6.9% | −1.9% | −9.8% |
| 1889 | +2.3% | +1.5% | −1.7% | +0.2% | +3.1% | +2.0% | −1.7% | +1.7% | +2.8% | −1.5% | −0.6% | −0.2% | +8.0% |
| 1888 | +1.2% | −0.2% | −3.4% | +0.8% | +1.8% | −2.7% | +3.0% | +2.5% | +2.8% | −0.2% | −1.7% | −1.5% | +2.1% |
| 1887 | −0.7% | −0.4% | +2.7% | +2.6% | +2.1% | −2.5% | −2.1% | −2.1% | −0.9% | −3.0% | +2.3% | −0.2% | −2.5% |
| 1886 | +0.4% | +2.3% | −1.7% | −1.0% | −1.6% | +5.0% | +1.9% | +1.1% | +3.0% | +2.9% | +2.8% | −2.3% | +13.2% |
| 1885 | −1.7% | +3.7% | +0.8% | +0.3% | −0.6% | +0.1% | +4.2% | +6.1% | −0.8% | +6.3% | +6.9% | −0.4% | +27.2% |
| 1884 | −2.5% | +3.2% | +0.1% | −4.0% | −7.6% | −3.5% | +0.6% | +6.9% | −2.6% | −2.7% | −1.4% | +0.4% | −13.1% |
| 1883 | −0.1% | −1.8% | +1.7% | +2.6% | −1.2% | +1.3% | −1.1% | −4.1% | +1.6% | −2.2% | +2.0% | −1.7% | −3.1% |
| 1882 | −1.1% | −1.7% | +0.3% | +0.5% | −0.7% | −0.1% | +6.1% | +3.4% | +1.4% | −2.3% | −3.8% | +1.0% | +2.6% |
| 1881 | +6.4% | 0.0% | +1.5% | +0.1% | +4.9% | +1.6% | −3.1% | −2.0% | +1.2% | −1.2% | +1.1% | −2.5% | +7.8% |
| 1880 | +4.2% | +2.1% | +2.3% | −1.9% | −7.6% | +0.8% | +5.0% | +4.0% | +0.2% | +3.3% | +5.7% | +4.5% | +24.1% |
| 1879 | +4.2% | +4.1% | −1.2% | +3.7% | +4.9% | +0.9% | +2.4% | +1.1% | +4.1% | +11.3% | +5.7% | +0.1% | +49.4% |
| 1878 | +0.5% | −1.7% | +2.4% | +3.3% | +0.8% | +2.6% | +2.5% | −0.4% | +2.5% | −0.7% | +0.1% | −0.1% | +12.1% |
| 1877 | −0.2% | −5.3% | −4.4% | −6.6% | +0.7% | −6.4% | +5.1% | +7.7% | +6.8% | +2.7% | −1.0% | +0.2% | −2.0% |
| 1876 | +2.6% | +1.9% | +0.3% | −3.2% | −3.1% | −0.1% | −0.6% | −3.5% | −5.5% | +0.1% | −1.2% | +0.1% | −11.8% |
| 1875 | +0.6% | +0.4% | +1.9% | +1.9% | −3.3% | −1.4% | +0.8% | +1.0% | −0.3% | −1.0% | +2.2% | +0.6% | +3.3% |
| 1874 | +6.1% | +3.6% | −0.9% | −2.2% | −2.0% | +0.2% | +0.6% | +0.8% | +2.2% | +0.4% | +1.5% | −0.1% | +10.4% |
| 1873 | +1.3% | +1.3% | −0.3% | −0.9% | +0.7% | −0.9% | +0.3% | +0.5% | −7.1% | −8.1% | −2.9% | +10.1% | −6.9% |
| 1872 | +3.0% | +0.9% | +3.7% | +3.2% | +0.4% | −0.5% | −0.1% | −0.7% | −1.3% | +0.9% | +0.1% | +2.9% | +13.1% |
| 1871 | +1.8% | +2.9% | +3.3% | +3.0% | −0.4% | −1.4% | +1.7% | +1.5% | −4.7% | +1.6% | +2.6% | +12.3%* |
每个单元格:该月含股息的回报,相对于上一个月,根据月平均值得出;全年数据同上表。色阶按1, 2, 4, 7和10%递进;更大的波动保持最深的色阶。* 不是完整的一年。 数据:罗伯特·J·席勒,耶鲁大学 · 通胀:美国CPI,席勒的数据.
估值:席勒市盈率与股息率
罗伯特·席勒的周期调整市盈率(CAPE)用价格除以过去十年盈利的平均值,两者均已扣除通胀,以此抹平商业周期。自1881以来其平均值为17.8;2026年10月为40.7,最高为1999年12月的44.2。平均而言,高值之后的未来十年回报往往较低,但这一比率对未来几个月几乎没有说明力。
股息率
过去十二个月支付的股息除以指数:2026年10月为1.06%;最高为1932年6月的13.8%。最近几个月沿用最后公布的股息(从2026年7月起为估计值)。
如何计算
- 数据:罗伯特·J·席勒,在线数据(耶鲁大学):标普综合指数(标普500,以及1957年之前其前身指数)、股息、盈利、周期调整市盈率和美国消费者价格,1871年1月以来按月。
- 月平均值:每个月是其每日收盘价的平均值,因此数字与月末或日内数值不同,短暂的崩盘看起来更浅。最新几个月为初步数据(席勒的说明:Oct price is Oct 2nd close; Sept/Oct CPI estimated; Oct GS10 is Oct 2nd value);股息从2026年7月起为估计值。
- 含股息:股息每月再投资:指数按当月的价格变化加上全年股息的十二分之一增长(席勒的方法)。不含费用和税收。
- 扣除通胀后(页面顶部的开关):每个数值都用美国消费者价格(CPI-U,来自席勒的数据)换算为10月 2026的美元:乘以10月 2026的CPI,再除以其所在月份的CPI。最新几个月为初步数据。
- 下跌:每个月平均值与此前最高月平均值的距离。从低于纪录20%起算为一次下跌,在首个高于该纪录的月份结束。分别按报价价格和扣除通胀后计算。
- 日历年和月份:12月平均值相对于上一个12月(1871年从1月起,当年至最新月份);某个月相对于上个月。
- 席勒市盈率(CAPE):席勒自己的一列,即实际价格除以此前十年的平均实际盈利(自1881年起)。股息率:十二个月的股息除以月平均价格。两个比率都不受通胀开关影响。
- K线和柱状图:每季度或每年一根,根据月平均值生成:每根以其之前最后一个月开盘,最高和最低是该时期内最高和最低的月平均值,而不是每日价格。
- 不构成投资建议。过去的回报和过去的崩盘并不能说明接下来会发生什么。