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指数 · 标普500 · 1871年1月以来按月

1871年以来的标普500历史

一个半世纪的美国股票尽收眼底:指数、股息带来的增益、每一次20%或以上的下跌、按年和按月的回报,以及席勒市盈率反映的估值。每个数字也都可以按扣除美国通胀后显示。

自1月 1871投入标普500的$1,股息再投资
×119万每年+9.4%

每日收盘价的月平均值,来自罗伯特·席勒的数据。不含费用和税收。

标普500 · 10月 2026
7,723
处于纪录高点

每日收盘价的月平均值;最新一个月为初步数据。纪录:7,723(10月 2026)。

仅指数,自1月 1871
×1,739每年+4.9%
最深跌幅
−84.8%

9月 1929 → 6月 1932; 纪录在9月 1954回来,历时25年

席勒市盈率(CAPE) · 10月 2026
40.7
平均17.8

自1881以来的平均值。价格与十年盈利之比,均已扣除通胀。

时光机

在1929年9月的峰值投入标普500的$1,000,计入股息并扣除通胀后,今天值多少?时光机可以回答任意日期的问题。

打开时光机

股息出了大部分力自1871年1月以来,指数上涨×1,739(每年4.9%)。股息再投资后,$1变成$119万(每年9.4%);扣除通胀后为$4.42万(每年7.1%)。

13次下跌,跌幅达20%或以上最深的一次:1929年9月至1932年6月下跌84.8%;指数直到1954年9月才回到纪录高点。最近的一次:2021–2022(20.3%)。

扣除通胀后:23.1 年才回来自1968年12月起,指数扣除通胀后到1982年7月下跌了62.6%,直到1992年1月才回到那个峰值;按报价美元计,在1972年3月就已再次高于它。

席勒市盈率为40.72026年10月,周期调整市盈率(CAPE)为40.7,自1881以来的平均值为17.8。只有在1999–2000和2026更高,并在1999年12月达到峰值44.2。

价格图表

逐月的指数。“含股息”显示$1在股息再投资后变成了多少(总回报指数),与仅指数并列。开启“扣除通胀后”时,一切均按10月 2026的美元计。

标普500指数
每日收盘价的月平均值 · 对数刻度 数据:罗伯特·J·席勒,耶鲁大学 · 通胀:美国CPI,席勒的数据

跌幅达20%或以上

自1871年以来,月平均值较其纪录下跌20%或以上共13次(扣除通胀后12次)。月平均值会抹平短暂的崩盘:按月平均值,2020年3月比纪录低19.1%,刚好未达本表标准。

距纪录
月平均值;0%表示新纪录 数据:罗伯特·J·席勒,耶鲁大学 · 通胀:美国CPI,席勒的数据
峰值峰值水平谷底谷底水平跌幅下跌历时收复纪录
4月 18725.186月 18772.73−47.3%5.2 年2月 1880历时7.8 年
6月 18816.588月 18963.81−42.1%15.2 年12月 1900历时19.5 年
9月 19028.8510月 19036.26−29.3%13个月3月 1905历时2.5 年
9月 190610.0311月 19076.25−37.7%14个月8月 1909历时2.9 年
12月 190910.308月 19216.45−37.4%11.7 年1月 1925历时15.1 年
9月 192931.306月 19324.77−84.8%2.8 年9月 1954历时25年
12月 196171.746月 196255.63−22.5%6个月9月 1963历时21个月
12月 19681066月 197075.59−29.0%18个月3月 1972历时3.2 年
1月 197311812月 197467.07−43.4%23个月7月 1980历时7.5 年
8月 198732912月 1987241−26.8%4个月7月 1989历时23个月
8月 20001,4852月 2003837−43.7%2.5 年5月 2007历时6.8 年
10月 20071,5403月 2009757−50.8%17个月3月 2013历时5.4 年
12月 20214,67510月 20223,726−20.3%10个月12月 2023历时2年

峰值和谷底均为每日收盘价的月平均值,因此个别日子曾更高或更低。纪录在平均值高于它的第一个月被视为收复。开启“扣除通胀后”时,本表按今天的美元重新计算。 数据:罗伯特·J·席勒,耶鲁大学 · 通胀:美国CPI,席勒的数据.

按日历年的回报

股息再投资,从一个12月的平均值到下一个,因此数字与通常引用的年末数据略有不同。红色柱表示亏损。

含股息
根据月平均值得出的日历年 数据:罗伯特·J·席勒,耶鲁大学 · 通胀:美国CPI,席勒的数据
年份12月平均仅指数含股息消费者价格
2026*7,723+12.7%+13.7%+3.6%
20256,853+14.0%+15.4%+2.7%
20246,011+28.3%+30.0%+2.9%
20234,685+19.7%+21.7%+3.4%
20223,912−16.3%−15.0%+6.5%
20214,675+26.5%+28.3%+7.0%
20203,695+16.3%+18.5%+1.4%
20193,177+23.7%+26.2%+2.3%
20182,567−3.6%−1.8%+1.9%
20172,664+18.6%+20.9%+2.1%
20162,247+9.4%+11.7%+2.1%
20152,054−0.0%+2.0%+0.7%
20142,054+13.6%+15.9%+0.8%
20131,808+27.1%+29.7%+1.5%
20121,422+14.4%+16.8%+1.7%
20111,243+0.1%+2.1%+3.0%
20101,242+11.8%+14.0%+1.5%
20091,110+26.5%+30.0%+2.7%
2008878−40.7%−39.2%+0.1%
20071,479+4.4%+6.3%+4.1%
20061,416+12.2%+14.3%+2.5%
20051,262+5.2%+7.1%+3.4%
20041,199+11.0%+12.8%+3.3%
20031,081+20.2%+22.3%+1.9%
2002899−21.5%−20.2%+2.4%
20011,145−14.0%−12.8%+1.6%
20001,331−6.8%−5.8%+3.4%
19991,429+20.1%+21.6%+2.7%
19981,190+23.7%+25.5%+1.6%
1997962+29.5%+31.8%+1.7%
更早的年份,1871–1996
年份12月平均仅指数含股息消费者价格
1996743+20.9%+23.6%+3.3%
1995615+35.0%+38.4%+2.5%
1994455−2.3%+0.5%+2.7%
1993466+7.0%+10.0%+2.7%
1992436+12.1%+15.5%+2.9%
1991389+18.2%+22.1%+3.1%
1990329−5.7%−2.4%+6.1%
1989349+26.1%+30.2%+4.6%
1988276+14.7%+18.8%+4.4%
1987241−3.1%−0.1%+4.4%
1986249+19.9%+24.1%+1.1%
1985207+26.0%+31.4%+3.8%
1984164+0.1%+4.7%+3.9%
1983164+17.9%+23.2%+3.8%
1982139+12.6%+19.2%+3.8%
1981124−7.3%−2.5%+8.9%
1980134+23.8%+30.2%+12.5%
1979108+12.2%+18.2%+13.3%
197896.11+2.4%+7.8%+9.0%
197793.82−10.4%−6.3%+6.7%
1976105+18.0%+22.5%+4.9%
197588.70+32.2%+38.0%+6.9%
197467.07−29.2%−26.1%+12.3%
197394.78−19.3%−16.9%+8.7%
1972118+18.5%+21.9%+3.4%
197199.17+10.1%+13.7%+3.3%
197090.05−1.2%+2.7%+5.6%
196991.11−14.5%−11.7%+6.2%
1968106+11.8%+15.2%+4.7%
196795.30+17.2%+20.9%+3.0%
196681.33−11.3%−8.3%+3.5%
196591.73+9.3%+12.5%+1.9%
196483.96+13.2%+16.6%+1.0%
196374.17+18.4%+22.2%+1.6%
196262.64−12.7%−9.7%+1.3%
196171.74+26.3%+30.1%+0.7%
196056.80−3.8%−0.4%+1.4%
195959.06+10.4%+13.9%+1.7%
195853.49+32.6%+37.8%+1.8%
195740.33−13.2%−9.7%+2.9%
195646.44+2.4%+6.3%+3.0%
195545.37+29.7%+35.0%+0.4%
195434.97+40.8%+48.1%−0.7%
195324.83−4.6%+1.0%+0.7%
195226.04+11.2%+17.9%+0.8%
195123.41+18.5%+26.8%+6.0%
195019.75+19.4%+27.9%+5.9%
194916.54+8.9%+16.5%−2.1%
194815.19+1.1%+6.9%+3.0%
194715.03−0.7%+4.5%+8.8%
194615.13−12.7%−9.1%+18.1%
194517.33+32.3%+38.1%+2.2%
194413.10+14.1%+20.0%+2.3%
194311.48+20.6%+27.0%+3.0%
19429.52+8.7%+17.2%+9.0%
19418.76−16.8%−10.7%+9.9%
194010.53−14.9%−9.7%+0.7%
193912.37−2.5%+2.0%0.0%
193812.69+15.2%+22.5%−2.8%
193711.02−35.4%−31.9%+2.9%
193617.06+30.8%+35.8%+1.4%
193513.04+40.8%+47.0%+3.0%
19349.26−7.1%−2.8%+1.5%
19339.97+46.2%+54.4%+0.8%
19326.82−19.2%−11.0%−10.3%
19318.44−45.6%−41.8%−9.3%
193015.51−27.5%−24.0%−6.4%
192921.40−7.6%−4.2%+0.6%
192823.15+32.6%+38.1%−1.2%
192717.46+29.4%+35.8%−2.3%
192613.49+8.3%+14.0%−1.1%
192512.46+22.6%+29.2%+3.5%
192410.16+18.8%+26.1%0.0%
19238.55−2.6%+3.5%+2.4%
19228.78+20.1%+27.3%−2.3%
19217.31+7.3%+15.2%−10.8%
19206.81−23.7%−18.5%+2.6%
19198.92+12.9%+20.2%+14.5%
19187.90+16.2%+26.2%+20.4%
19176.80−30.6%−25.2%+18.1%
19169.80+3.4%+9.0%+12.6%
19159.48+29.0%+35.8%+2.0%
19147.35−8.6%−3.3%+1.0%
19138.04−14.3%−9.3%+3.0%
19129.38+3.0%+8.2%+7.4%
19119.11+0.7%+5.9%−2.1%
19109.05−12.1%−7.7%−7.6%
190910.30+14.1%+19.1%+10.5%
19089.03+37.4%+45.1%+3.3%
19076.57−33.2%−29.5%−2.1%
19069.84+3.1%+7.2%+5.6%
19059.54+15.6%+19.8%0.0%
19048.25+25.6%+31.6%+4.7%
19036.57−18.4%−14.4%−5.6%
19028.05+1.3%+5.2%+7.1%
19017.95+15.7%+20.4%+5.0%
19006.87+14.1%+19.0%−3.6%
18996.02+6.5%+10.1%+16.9%
18985.65+18.9%+23.5%+1.4%
18974.75+12.6%+17.2%0.0%
18964.22−2.3%+2.0%−1.4%
18954.32+0.5%+5.0%+2.9%
18944.30−2.5%+2.7%−6.8%
18934.41−20.0%−15.7%−7.5%
18925.51+1.8%+6.2%+1.3%
18915.41+17.6%+22.9%−4.8%
18904.60−13.5%−9.8%+1.2%
18895.32+3.5%+8.0%−5.7%
18885.14−2.5%+2.1%0.0%
18875.27−6.6%−2.5%+6.1%
18865.64+8.5%+13.2%−4.7%
18855.20+19.8%+27.2%−1.1%
18844.34−18.7%−13.1%−10.3%
18835.34−8.6%−3.1%−7.6%
18825.84−2.8%+2.6%−1.9%
18816.01+2.9%+7.8%+7.0%
18805.84+18.7%+24.1%−2.0%
18794.92+42.6%+49.4%+18.6%
18783.45+6.2%+12.1%−14.0%
18773.25−9.2%−2.0%−11.5%
18763.58−18.1%−11.8%−1.7%
18754.37−3.7%+3.3%−5.0%
18744.54+2.7%+10.4%−5.5%
18734.42−12.8%−6.9%−5.9%
18725.07+7.0%+13.1%+2.3%
1871*4.74+6.8%+12.3%+1.5%

* 1871自1月 1871起,2026至10月 2026。消费者价格:美国CPI,12月到12月,即每年回报必须跑赢的通胀。

按月的回报

股息再投资后,标普500在1869个月中有1179个月上涨(63%)。最好的月份是1932年8月(+51.3%),最差的是1929年11月(−26.2%)。

年份1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月全年
2026+1.2%−0.4%−3.4%+4.6%+6.6%+0.6%+0.5%+3.2%−0.5%+0.8%+13.7%*
2025−0.4%+1.1%−5.8%−5.4%+8.3%+3.9%+4.5%+1.9%+2.8%+2.4%+0.2%+1.8%+15.4%
2024+2.9%+4.2%+3.3%−1.0%+2.5%+3.6%+2.4%−1.0%+2.7%+3.2%+2.5%+1.5%+30.0%
2023+1.4%+3.1%−2.6%+4.0%+0.7%+4.9%+3.9%−1.0%−1.0%−3.0%+4.6%+5.2%+21.7%
2022−2.1%−2.9%−0.9%+0.1%−7.9%−3.4%+0.5%+6.4%−7.3%−3.1%+5.3%0.0%−15.0%
2021+2.8%+2.5%+0.8%+6.0%+0.8%+1.8%+3.1%+2.2%−0.1%+0.5%+4.7%+0.3%+28.3%
2020+3.3%+0.1%−18.9%+4.3%+5.9%+6.5%+3.5%+5.9%−0.6%+1.7%+4.0%+4.3%+18.5%
2019+1.7%+5.8%+1.9%+3.7%−1.5%+1.4%+3.8%−3.1%+3.1%0.0%+4.4%+2.5%+26.2%
2018+4.9%−2.9%+0.1%−1.7%+2.0%+2.1%+1.6%+2.5%+1.7%−3.8%−2.1%−5.6%−1.8%
2017+1.4%+2.6%+1.8%−0.2%+1.7%+1.8%+1.0%+0.2%+1.7%+2.7%+1.6%+2.9%+20.9%
2016−6.4%−0.5%+6.4%+2.8%−0.3%+1.1%+3.3%+1.2%−0.4%−0.5%+1.2%+3.9%+11.7%
2015−1.1%+2.8%+0.1%+0.9%+1.0%−0.4%−0.1%−2.4%−4.5%+4.3%+2.9%−1.1%+2.0%
2014+1.0%−0.1%+2.7%+0.2%+1.5%+3.2%+1.5%−0.4%+1.8%−2.6%+5.7%+0.6%+15.9%
2013+4.3%+2.3%+2.7%+1.5%+4.6%−1.1%+3.3%+0.3%+1.2%+2.1%+3.9%+1.5%+29.7%
2012+4.8%+4.2%+2.9%0.0%−3.1%−1.2%+2.9%+3.4%+3.0%−0.2%−2.8%+2.2%+16.8%
2011+3.5%+3.2%−1.1%+2.2%+0.7%−3.7%+3.1%−10.4%−0.8%+3.0%+1.8%+1.6%+2.1%
2010+1.4%−2.9%+5.9%+4.1%−5.9%−3.5%−0.2%+0.9%+3.4%+4.6%+2.5%+3.7%+14.0%
2009−1.1%−6.7%−5.7%+12.3%+6.7%+2.9%+1.3%+8.1%+3.6%+2.4%+2.1%+2.2%+30.0%
2008−6.6%−1.6%−2.6%+4.2%+2.6%−4.2%−6.1%+2.1%−4.8%−20.2%−8.6%−0.4%−39.2%
2007+0.7%+1.6%−2.5%+4.2%+3.4%+0.3%+0.6%−4.2%+3.1%+3.0%−4.8%+1.2%+6.3%
2006+1.5%0.0%+1.5%+0.8%−0.8%−2.7%+0.7%+2.3%+2.5%+3.6%+2.0%+2.1%+14.3%
2005−1.3%+1.7%−0.3%−2.4%+1.3%+2.2%+1.8%+0.3%+0.3%−2.6%+4.0%+2.1%+7.1%
2004+4.9%+1.1%−1.6%+1.0%−2.6%+2.9%−2.2%−1.4%+2.8%+0.1%+4.8%+2.7%+12.8%
2003−0.2%−6.4%+1.3%+5.3%+5.3%+5.7%+0.6%−0.2%+3.2%+2.0%+1.2%+3.1%+22.3%
2002−0.3%−3.4%+4.9%−3.5%−2.8%−5.9%−10.8%+1.1%−4.8%−1.4%+6.6%−1.0%−20.2%
2001+0.5%−2.1%−9.1%+0.4%+6.9%−2.4%−2.7%−2.0%−11.2%+3.2%+5.1%+1.5%−12.8%
2000−0.1%−2.5%+3.9%+1.4%−2.8%+3.2%+0.8%+0.9%−1.1%−5.2%−0.8%−3.3%−5.8%
1999+5.0%−0.1%+2.9%+4.3%−0.1%−0.6%+4.5%−3.8%−0.6%−1.3%+7.1%+2.8%+21.6%
1998+0.2%+6.4%+5.3%+3.4%−0.2%+0.1%+4.5%−7.0%−4.9%+1.3%+11.0%+4.1%+25.5%
1997+3.3%+4.4%−0.6%−3.4%+9.2%+5.3%+5.7%+0.3%+1.2%+1.6%−1.2%+2.6%+31.8%
更早的年份,1871–1996
年份1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月全年
1996+0.2%+5.9%−0.2%+0.2%+2.4%+1.3%−3.5%+3.1%+2.0%+4.1%+5.1%+1.2%+23.6%
1995+2.5%+3.8%+2.6%+3.2%+3.3%+3.2%+3.5%+0.5%+3.7%+0.9%+2.4%+3.4%+38.4%
1994+1.7%−0.1%−1.4%−3.3%+1.1%+1.1%−0.5%+3.1%+0.8%−0.4%−0.4%−1.0%+0.5%
1993+0.1%+1.7%+2.2%−1.3%+0.7%+0.9%+0.1%+1.8%+1.4%+1.2%0.0%+0.9%+10.0%
1992+7.4%−0.6%−1.0%+0.3%+2.1%−1.3%+1.9%+0.9%+0.4%−1.2%+2.8%+3.3%+15.5%
1991−0.7%+11.6%+3.0%+2.3%−0.2%+0.3%+0.8%+2.7%−0.3%+0.2%0.0%+0.9%+22.1%
1990−2.2%−2.5%+2.7%+0.2%+3.9%+3.2%+0.2%−7.9%−4.3%−2.3%+3.0%+4.6%−2.4%
1989+3.5%+3.3%−0.2%+3.6%+4.1%+3.4%+2.8%+4.7%+0.5%+0.3%−1.8%+2.7%+30.2%
1988+4.2%+3.3%+3.2%−0.9%−2.2%+6.0%−0.3%−1.7%+1.9%+3.8%−2.0%+2.3%+18.8%
1987+6.7%+6.5%+4.4%−0.9%+0.2%+4.5%+3.1%+6.5%−3.0%−11.9%−12.3%−1.3%−0.1%
1986+0.8%+5.7%+6.2%+2.7%+0.5%+3.1%−1.8%+2.3%−2.5%−0.1%+3.5%+1.7%+24.1%
1985+4.7%+5.8%−0.5%+1.0%+2.7%+2.5%+2.2%−1.8%−1.9%+1.5%+6.4%+5.3%+31.4%
1984+1.6%−5.1%+0.4%+0.5%−0.3%−1.8%−0.9%+9.2%+1.4%−0.4%+1.3%−0.7%+4.7%
1983+3.9%+2.1%+3.9%+4.2%+4.4%+1.8%+0.7%−2.4%+3.3%+0.6%−1.1%−0.1%+23.2%
1982−4.8%−1.9%−2.7%+5.5%+0.6%−5.3%+0.2%+0.8%+12.1%+8.9%+4.5%+1.4%+19.2%
19810.0%−3.1%+4.1%+1.3%−1.6%+0.9%−2.0%+0.8%−8.3%+1.7%+3.0%+1.2%−2.5%
1980+3.3%+4.4%−8.8%−1.2%+5.0%+6.9%+5.0%+3.5%+2.8%+3.3%+4.6%−1.2%+30.2%
1979+4.2%−1.1%+2.3%+2.4%−1.9%+2.4%+1.4%+5.0%+1.5%−3.3%−0.3%+4.4%+18.2%
1978−3.4%−1.0%+0.3%+4.8%+5.5%+0.7%−0.1%+7.3%+0.4%−2.8%−5.4%+1.9%+7.8%
1977−0.5%−2.4%−0.1%−1.2%+0.1%+0.9%+1.3%−2.1%−1.2%−2.2%+1.0%−0.1%−6.3%
1976+9.5%+4.2%+0.8%+1.1%−0.4%+0.9%+2.7%−0.6%+2.4%−3.1%−0.4%+3.8%+22.5%
1975+8.6%+10.8%+5.0%+1.5%+6.7%+2.9%+0.4%−7.0%−0.9%+5.0%+2.0%−1.2%+38.0%
1974+1.7%−2.5%+4.6%−4.8%−2.7%+0.5%−11.3%−3.8%−10.0%+2.4%+3.7%−6.1%−26.1%
1973+1.0%−3.3%−1.3%−1.6%−2.6%−2.0%+1.2%−1.6%+2.0%+4.2%−6.9%−6.8%−16.9%
1972+4.4%+2.1%+2.6%+1.3%−0.8%+0.5%−0.5%+3.8%−1.2%+0.4%+5.3%+2.3%+21.9%
1971+4.1%+4.2%+2.8%+3.7%−1.1%−1.6%−0.5%−1.5%+2.5%−1.9%−4.4%+7.2%+13.7%
1970−0.6%−3.2%+2.0%−2.7%−11.2%−0.3%+0.5%+3.3%+6.3%+2.5%+0.2%+7.2%+2.7%
1969−4.0%−0.2%−1.9%+2.3%+3.5%−5.0%−4.2%−0.3%+0.6%+1.3%+1.0%−5.0%−11.7%
19680.0%−4.3%−1.6%+7.7%+2.6%+2.9%0.0%−1.9%+3.5%+2.7%+1.8%+1.3%+15.2%
1967+4.1%+3.7%+2.6%+2.0%+2.1%−1.0%+2.0%+1.9%+1.7%+0.1%−2.9%+3.1%+20.9%
1966+2.0%−0.4%−3.9%+3.3%−5.0%−0.6%0.0%−5.8%−3.2%−0.6%+5.3%+0.7%−8.3%
1965+2.8%+1.0%+0.3%+1.6%+1.7%−4.5%+0.1%+2.1%+3.6%+2.5%+1.1%−0.2%+12.5%
1964+3.3%+1.5%+2.1%+1.7%+1.2%−0.3%+4.0%−1.2%+2.0%+2.0%+0.9%−1.5%+16.6%
1963+4.1%+1.6%−0.1%+5.0%+2.3%+0.2%−1.2%+3.0%+2.9%+0.5%−0.3%+2.4%+22.2%
1962−3.5%+1.9%+0.3%−2.9%−7.2%−11.4%+2.7%+3.0%−0.6%−2.9%+7.2%+4.6%−9.7%
1961+5.4%+4.4%+3.4%+2.9%+1.3%−1.1%0.0%+3.8%−0.5%+1.3%+4.8%+1.2%+30.1%
1960−1.5%−3.6%−1.1%+1.6%−0.6%+4.0%−2.2%+1.5%−2.7%−1.7%+3.5%+2.7%−0.4%
1959+4.3%−1.3%+2.8%+1.9%+1.8%−0.6%+4.2%−0.3%−3.7%+0.2%+0.7%+3.5%+13.9%
1958+2.3%+0.7%+2.4%+0.9%+3.6%+2.7%+3.1%+4.1%+2.9%+4.4%+3.3%+2.2%+37.8%
1957−1.9%−4.0%+1.6%+2.6%+4.2%+2.0%+2.3%−5.2%−3.7%−5.9%−1.8%+0.3%−9.7%
1956−2.4%+1.0%+7.2%+1.5%−2.8%−0.3%+5.8%−0.3%−3.1%−1.0%−0.7%+1.8%+6.3%
1955+2.2%+3.7%−0.4%+3.8%−0.1%+6.1%+7.6%−0.3%+4.8%−4.7%+7.1%+1.2%+35.0%
1954+3.0%+2.7%+2.6%+4.4%+4.4%+1.2%+4.5%+2.4%+2.7%+2.7%+4.3%+5.0%+48.1%
1953+1.0%−0.8%+1.0%−4.5%+1.0%−3.1%+1.9%+0.9%−4.1%+3.5%+2.7%+1.8%+1.0%
1952+3.8%−1.3%+0.8%+0.2%+0.5%+3.2%+3.4%+0.9%−1.1%−1.6%+3.7%+4.5%+17.9%
1951+8.0%+4.3%−1.1%+1.9%+0.6%−1.1%+2.4%+5.0%+3.1%0.0%−2.3%+3.6%+26.8%
1950+2.6%+2.5%+1.4%+3.4%+3.9%+2.2%−6.7%+6.7%+4.1%+4.7%+0.4%+0.2%+27.9%
1949+1.6%−3.3%+1.5%+0.4%−0.2%−4.9%+6.3%+4.2%+1.9%+3.2%+2.0%+3.3%+16.5%
1948−0.9%−4.4%+1.9%+8.2%+5.3%+4.6%−2.0%−2.5%−0.7%+3.2%−5.1%−0.1%+6.9%
1947+0.9%+4.3%−3.7%−3.3%−1.4%+3.9%+6.7%−1.6%−2.2%+3.0%−0.7%−1.1%+4.5%
1946+4.3%+0.6%−2.7%+6.8%+0.5%−0.3%−2.5%−1.6%−14.4%−1.9%0.0%+3.4%−9.1%
1945+3.4%+3.7%+0.3%+2.9%+4.2%+2.2%−1.7%+0.7%+7.2%+4.5%+3.6%+2.0%+38.1%
1944+3.7%−0.2%+3.2%−1.3%+2.2%+5.1%+3.0%−1.1%−1.2%+2.9%−0.3%+2.6%+20.0%
1943+6.5%+6.4%+4.0%+3.8%+4.4%+2.2%+2.5%−4.5%+2.6%−0.5%−4.2%+1.8%+27.0%
1942+2.6%−2.5%−4.8%−3.5%+1.9%+5.7%+4.4%0.0%+1.6%+8.0%+2.1%+1.0%+17.2%
1941+0.7%−5.7%+1.2%−2.5%−1.6%+4.1%+5.7%+0.1%+0.9%−3.4%−4.1%−5.9%−10.7%
1940−0.1%−0.2%−0.1%+1.4%−13.3%−8.1%+3.9%+2.7%+4.8%+1.5%+2.9%−3.6%−9.7%
1939−1.2%−0.5%+0.3%−12.2%+4.1%+2.2%+2.8%−1.1%+11.1%+1.4%−1.4%−2.0%+2.0%
1938+3.2%−1.8%−6.0%−3.5%+1.5%+2.9%+20.5%+1.0%−4.1%+11.6%+0.4%−2.6%+22.5%
1937+3.5%+3.3%+0.2%−5.6%−4.1%−3.3%+6.4%+1.4%−13.8%−14.1%−8.3%−1.0%−31.9%
1936+5.8%+6.0%+2.4%+0.4%−5.0%+4.6%+6.2%+2.3%+1.5%+5.6%+3.1%−1.4%+35.8%
1935+0.4%−2.6%−5.9%+7.9%+8.3%+4.2%+5.6%+7.1%+2.4%+3.0%+9.7%+0.3%+47.0%
1934+6.1%+7.7%−4.8%+2.0%−9.8%+1.7%−4.4%−3.5%−2.0%+1.2%+3.2%+1.1%−2.8%
1933+4.6%−11.3%+0.3%+11.2%+29.3%+17.6%+8.5%−4.6%−0.5%−9.4%+2.8%+2.3%+54.4%
1932−0.9%−0.1%+1.1%−23.3%−11.3%−12.4%+6.1%+51.3%+10.3%−13.2%−0.4%−2.7%−11.0%
1931+3.5%+8.1%+2.4%−9.1%−9.2%−2.7%+3.8%−2.5%−14.4%−12.8%+2.0%−18.1%−41.8%
1930+1.8%+6.6%+4.1%+6.7%−5.7%−9.8%−1.8%−0.9%+0.3%−13.4%−6.8%−6.2%−24.0%
1929+7.7%+0.8%+2.1%−0.3%+1.8%+2.2%+9.2%+6.0%+4.2%−10.3%−26.2%+4.4%−4.2%
1928+0.8%−0.8%+5.7%+6.7%+3.4%−4.6%+1.1%+3.6%+7.4%+2.4%+7.1%+0.7%+38.1%
1927−0.2%+2.4%+2.0%+2.9%+3.9%+1.7%+2.6%+5.7%+6.1%−1.2%+2.7%+2.7%+35.8%
1926+1.9%+0.6%−6.4%−2.3%+1.2%+5.2%+4.7%+4.4%+1.9%−1.8%+1.7%+2.7%+14.0%
1925+4.6%+1.3%−2.2%−0.6%+3.7%+2.2%+3.2%+1.8%+2.7%+3.7%+3.5%+2.0%+29.2%
1924+3.8%+1.0%−1.4%−1.8%+0.2%+2.4%+5.2%+3.9%−0.5%−0.8%+6.1%+5.9%+26.1%
1923+1.9%+4.8%+2.1%−3.0%−4.3%−3.3%−2.8%+1.0%+1.2%−0.9%+3.5%+3.9%+3.5%
1922+0.4%+2.7%+4.3%+6.6%+4.4%−0.5%+1.2%+4.2%+3.1%+2.7%−4.5%+0.3%+27.3%
1921+5.0%−0.1%−2.0%+1.0%+3.6%−7.4%+0.3%−0.6%+3.1%+2.0%+6.0%+4.1%+15.2%
1920−0.5%−7.8%+7.6%−0.3%−5.8%−1.2%+0.4%−3.4%+4.1%+0.7%−4.5%−8.4%−18.5%
19190.0%+1.0%+3.6%+3.9%+7.5%+3.2%+3.8%−6.3%+2.1%+5.6%−2.5%−2.5%+20.2%
1918+6.9%+3.8%−1.3%−0.2%+3.9%+0.8%+1.5%+1.6%+0.1%+4.9%+3.2%−1.4%+26.2%
1917−1.9%−5.1%+3.6%−1.0%−2.8%+2.6%−2.2%−2.3%−4.2%−4.7%−7.6%−2.6%−25.2%
1916−1.2%−1.0%+0.1%−0.7%+2.6%+1.4%−0.9%+1.2%+4.6%+3.6%+2.8%−3.6%+9.0%
1915+2.2%−0.9%+3.1%+8.0%−1.9%+1.6%+0.1%+4.7%+4.1%+6.0%+3.9%+0.6%+35.8%
1914+4.6%+1.8%−1.4%−1.9%+1.1%0.0%−5.1%+0.5%+0.5%+0.5%+0.5%−3.8%−3.3%
1913−0.4%−3.1%−1.4%+0.3%−2.3%−4.6%+1.8%+3.2%+1.4%−2.7%−2.1%+0.4%−9.3%
1912+0.5%−0.4%+3.3%+3.5%+0.3%+0.4%+0.5%+2.7%+0.9%+0.2%−0.7%−3.2%+8.2%
1911+2.9%+2.1%−0.8%0.0%+2.6%+2.4%0.0%−4.4%−5.0%+1.0%+4.5%+0.9%+5.9%
1910−1.8%−3.2%+2.9%−2.0%−1.3%−4.4%−4.6%+2.9%+1.1%+5.0%+0.3%−2.4%−7.7%
1909+0.7%−2.5%+1.8%+4.9%+3.7%+2.1%+1.8%+2.8%+0.5%+0.7%−0.1%+1.5%+19.1%
1908+4.8%−3.1%+4.6%+5.9%+5.9%+0.6%+4.1%+4.7%−0.7%+1.6%+7.2%+2.6%+45.1%
1907−2.5%−2.8%−9.5%+0.9%−3.0%−2.8%+4.3%−7.1%−0.6%−10.4%−5.3%+5.7%−29.5%
1906+3.8%−0.4%−2.2%−1.1%−2.3%+1.6%−2.2%+7.7%+3.4%−2.7%+2.4%−0.6%+7.2%
1905+2.5%+4.7%+3.1%−0.9%−4.6%+1.5%+3.5%+4.0%+0.6%+1.7%−0.2%+2.8%+19.8%
1904+2.1%−2.3%+0.1%+2.9%−1.7%+0.6%+4.6%+3.8%+4.8%+6.2%+5.8%+1.3%+31.6%
1903+5.4%−0.3%−3.6%−3.7%−1.6%−5.2%−4.2%−2.8%−2.0%−2.8%+0.8%+5.1%−14.4%
1902+2.5%+1.2%+0.5%+3.7%+0.1%−0.3%+2.6%+3.0%+0.5%−2.9%−3.5%−2.0%+5.2%
1901+3.3%+2.9%+3.9%+8.7%−4.7%+10.3%−6.4%+1.7%−0.2%−0.8%+2.5%−1.3%+20.4%
1900+1.6%+2.1%+1.1%+1.6%−4.4%−2.6%+0.4%+1.7%−2.0%+4.0%+8.2%+6.4%+19.0%
1899+7.9%+4.1%+1.7%+1.5%−3.9%−2.0%+3.7%+2.8%−0.8%−0.2%+2.2%−6.5%+10.1%
1898+3.1%+0.1%−4.2%−1.4%+6.9%+4.2%+0.7%+4.1%+0.1%−1.8%+3.6%+6.5%+23.5%
1897+0.4%−0.6%+0.6%−2.7%+0.9%+5.0%+4.8%+6.8%+5.2%−2.9%−3.2%+2.5%+17.2%
1896−0.8%+4.6%−1.2%+1.3%−0.1%−1.5%−6.1%−5.3%+5.6%+2.6%+7.2%−3.3%+2.0%
1895−0.8%−1.0%+0.4%+4.7%+5.9%+2.3%+0.8%+1.8%+1.0%−1.1%−3.0%−5.5%+5.0%
1894−1.6%+1.9%+3.4%+1.8%−3.3%−0.9%−1.6%+4.2%+2.0%−2.7%+0.4%−0.5%+2.7%
1893+2.2%−1.4%−3.3%+0.4%−8.5%−4.3%−8.9%−1.9%+7.6%+3.4%+2.0%−3.0%−15.7%
1892+2.2%+0.5%+1.4%+0.2%+0.3%−0.2%+0.3%+1.8%−2.1%+2.4%0.0%−0.7%+6.2%
1891+5.6%+1.6%−1.5%+3.7%0.0%−1.6%−1.3%+3.7%+8.5%+0.3%−1.2%+3.4%+22.9%
1890+1.5%−0.8%−0.4%+2.4%+4.6%−0.4%−0.4%−2.0%−1.3%−4.2%−6.9%−1.9%−9.8%
1889+2.3%+1.5%−1.7%+0.2%+3.1%+2.0%−1.7%+1.7%+2.8%−1.5%−0.6%−0.2%+8.0%
1888+1.2%−0.2%−3.4%+0.8%+1.8%−2.7%+3.0%+2.5%+2.8%−0.2%−1.7%−1.5%+2.1%
1887−0.7%−0.4%+2.7%+2.6%+2.1%−2.5%−2.1%−2.1%−0.9%−3.0%+2.3%−0.2%−2.5%
1886+0.4%+2.3%−1.7%−1.0%−1.6%+5.0%+1.9%+1.1%+3.0%+2.9%+2.8%−2.3%+13.2%
1885−1.7%+3.7%+0.8%+0.3%−0.6%+0.1%+4.2%+6.1%−0.8%+6.3%+6.9%−0.4%+27.2%
1884−2.5%+3.2%+0.1%−4.0%−7.6%−3.5%+0.6%+6.9%−2.6%−2.7%−1.4%+0.4%−13.1%
1883−0.1%−1.8%+1.7%+2.6%−1.2%+1.3%−1.1%−4.1%+1.6%−2.2%+2.0%−1.7%−3.1%
1882−1.1%−1.7%+0.3%+0.5%−0.7%−0.1%+6.1%+3.4%+1.4%−2.3%−3.8%+1.0%+2.6%
1881+6.4%0.0%+1.5%+0.1%+4.9%+1.6%−3.1%−2.0%+1.2%−1.2%+1.1%−2.5%+7.8%
1880+4.2%+2.1%+2.3%−1.9%−7.6%+0.8%+5.0%+4.0%+0.2%+3.3%+5.7%+4.5%+24.1%
1879+4.2%+4.1%−1.2%+3.7%+4.9%+0.9%+2.4%+1.1%+4.1%+11.3%+5.7%+0.1%+49.4%
1878+0.5%−1.7%+2.4%+3.3%+0.8%+2.6%+2.5%−0.4%+2.5%−0.7%+0.1%−0.1%+12.1%
1877−0.2%−5.3%−4.4%−6.6%+0.7%−6.4%+5.1%+7.7%+6.8%+2.7%−1.0%+0.2%−2.0%
1876+2.6%+1.9%+0.3%−3.2%−3.1%−0.1%−0.6%−3.5%−5.5%+0.1%−1.2%+0.1%−11.8%
1875+0.6%+0.4%+1.9%+1.9%−3.3%−1.4%+0.8%+1.0%−0.3%−1.0%+2.2%+0.6%+3.3%
1874+6.1%+3.6%−0.9%−2.2%−2.0%+0.2%+0.6%+0.8%+2.2%+0.4%+1.5%−0.1%+10.4%
1873+1.3%+1.3%−0.3%−0.9%+0.7%−0.9%+0.3%+0.5%−7.1%−8.1%−2.9%+10.1%−6.9%
1872+3.0%+0.9%+3.7%+3.2%+0.4%−0.5%−0.1%−0.7%−1.3%+0.9%+0.1%+2.9%+13.1%
1871+1.8%+2.9%+3.3%+3.0%−0.4%−1.4%+1.7%+1.5%−4.7%+1.6%+2.6%+12.3%*

每个单元格:该月含股息的回报,相对于上一个月,根据月平均值得出;全年数据同上表。色阶按1, 2, 4, 7和10%递进;更大的波动保持最深的色阶。* 不是完整的一年。 数据:罗伯特·J·席勒,耶鲁大学 · 通胀:美国CPI,席勒的数据.

估值:席勒市盈率与股息率

罗伯特·席勒的周期调整市盈率(CAPE)用价格除以过去十年盈利的平均值,两者均已扣除通胀,以此抹平商业周期。自1881以来其平均值为17.8;2026年10月为40.7,最高为1999年12月的44.2。平均而言,高值之后的未来十年回报往往较低,但这一比率对未来几个月几乎没有说明力。

席勒市盈率(CAPE)长期平均,17.8
按月;价格和盈利已扣除通胀(席勒的方法) 数据:罗伯特·J·席勒,耶鲁大学

股息率

过去十二个月支付的股息除以指数:2026年10月为1.06%;最高为1932年6月的13.8%。最近几个月沿用最后公布的股息(从2026年7月起为估计值)。

按月;十二个月的股息除以月平均价格 数据:罗伯特·J·席勒,耶鲁大学

如何计算

  • 数据:罗伯特·J·席勒,在线数据(耶鲁大学):标普综合指数(标普500,以及1957年之前其前身指数)、股息、盈利、周期调整市盈率和美国消费者价格,1871年1月以来按月。
  • 月平均值:每个月是其每日收盘价的平均值,因此数字与月末或日内数值不同,短暂的崩盘看起来更浅。最新几个月为初步数据(席勒的说明:Oct price is Oct 2nd close; Sept/Oct CPI estimated; Oct GS10 is Oct 2nd value);股息从2026年7月起为估计值。
  • 含股息:股息每月再投资:指数按当月的价格变化加上全年股息的十二分之一增长(席勒的方法)。不含费用和税收。
  • 扣除通胀后(页面顶部的开关):每个数值都用美国消费者价格(CPI-U,来自席勒的数据)换算为10月 2026的美元:乘以10月 2026的CPI,再除以其所在月份的CPI。最新几个月为初步数据。
  • 下跌:每个月平均值与此前最高月平均值的距离。从低于纪录20%起算为一次下跌,在首个高于该纪录的月份结束。分别按报价价格和扣除通胀后计算。
  • 日历年和月份:12月平均值相对于上一个12月(1871年从1月起,当年至最新月份);某个月相对于上个月。
  • 席勒市盈率(CAPE):席勒自己的一列,即实际价格除以此前十年的平均实际盈利(自1881年起)。股息率:十二个月的股息除以月平均价格。两个比率都不受通胀开关影响。
  • K线和柱状图:每季度或每年一根,根据月平均值生成:每根以其之前最后一个月开盘,最高和最低是该时期内最高和最低的月平均值,而不是每日价格。
  • 不构成投资建议。过去的回报和过去的崩盘并不能说明接下来会发生什么。

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