Rates & debt · Treasury yields
US Treasury yields since 1990
What the US government pays to borrow, from one month to thirty years: the yield curve every business day since 1990, from the Treasury's own data.
A month earlier: 5.27% (Oct 6, 2026). A year earlier: 4.11% (Nov 6, 2025).
A month earlier: 4.79% (Oct 6, 2026). A year earlier: 3.57% (Nov 6, 2025).
The last inversion: Jul 6, 2022 – Sep 5, 2024.
A month earlier: 4.21% (Oct 6, 2026). A year earlier: 3.93% (Nov 6, 2025).
The yield curve on November 6, 2026
On November 6, 2026 the curve is upward sloping (the 10-year minus the 3-month: +0.67 pp). The highest yield is 5.29% (20 years), the lowest 4.02% (1 month). Pick any day since 1990 to compare.
| Maturity | Nov 6, 2026 | Oct 6, 2026 | Nov 6, 2025 | Change in a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 4.02% | 4.06% | 4.02% | 0.00 pp |
| 1.5 months | 4.07% | 4.12% | 3.96% | +0.11 pp |
| 2 months | 4.15% | 4.13% | 3.98% | +0.17 pp |
| 3 months | 4.19% | 4.21% | 3.93% | +0.26 pp |
| 4 months | 4.19% | 4.26% | 3.84% | +0.35 pp |
| 6 months | 4.23% | 4.28% | 3.76% | +0.47 pp |
| 1 year | 4.33% | 4.46% | 3.65% | +0.68 pp |
| 2 years | 4.51% | 4.79% | 3.57% | +0.94 pp |
| 3 years | 4.59% | 4.88% | 3.58% | +1.01 pp |
| 5 years | 4.64% | 5.03% | 3.69% | +0.95 pp |
| 7 years | 4.74% | 5.15% | 3.87% | +0.87 pp |
| 10 years | 4.86% | 5.27% | 4.11% | +0.75 pp |
| 20 years | 5.29% | 5.68% | 4.67% | +0.62 pp |
| 30 years | 5.26% | 5.64% | 4.69% | +0.57 pp |
2-year and 10-year yields since 1990
The 2-year yield follows what markets expect the Federal Reserve to do over the next two years; the 10-year adds expectations further out and the extra pay investors want for lending longer. Gray bands: recessions.
The 10-year minus 2-year spread
Below zero the curve is inverted: two-year money pays more than ten-year money, usually because markets expect the Fed to cut rates. Since 1990 that has happened 7 times; on November 6, 2026 the spread was +0.35 pp.
Every inversion since 1990
| First day | Last day | Days inverted | Deepest | Recession that followed (NBER) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 6, 2022 | Sep 5, 2024 | 539 | −1.08 ppJul 3, 2023 | None within 2 years |
| Apr 1, 2022 | Apr 4, 2022 | 2 | −0.05 ppApr 1, 2022 | None within 2 years |
| Aug 27, 2019 | Aug 29, 2019 | 3 | −0.04 ppAug 27, 2019 | Feb 2020 · 6 months laterthe pandemic recession |
| Dec 27, 2005 | Jun 5, 2007 | 238 | −0.19 ppNov 15, 2006 | Dec 2007 · 24 months later |
| Feb 2, 2000 | Dec 28, 2000 | 227 | −0.52 ppApr 7, 2000 | Mar 2001 · 13 months later |
| May 26, 1998 | Jul 27, 1998 | 27 | −0.07 ppJun 25, 1998 | None within 2 years |
| Mar 8, 1990 | Mar 29, 1990 | 16 | −0.14 ppMar 20, 1990 | Jul 1990 · 4 months later |
Business days with the 10-year yield below the 2-year; inversions less than 90 days apart are counted as one. A recession followed when an NBER business cycle peak came within 24 months of the first day and before the next inversion.
An inversion is not a forecast
Of the 7 inversions since 1990, 4 were followed by a recession within 24 months, after 4 to 24 months, and the 2020 recession came with a pandemic that no bond market foresaw. The longest and deepest inversion in these data (Jul 2022 – Sep 2024: 539 business days, down to −1.08 pp on Jul 3, 2023) has not been followed by a recession (NBER dates as of November 8, 2026). The curve inverts when markets expect short-term rates to fall; whether a recession follows depends on much else.
How the numbers are made
- Yields: the Treasury's daily par yield curve rates, percent per year as published. They are read from a curve fitted to market quotes of recently issued Treasury securities late each business day: the same constant-maturity yields the Federal Reserve publishes in H.15. Not every maturity covers the whole period: 1 month since Jul 31, 2001; 1.5 months since Feb 18, 2025; 2 months since Oct 16, 2018; 4 months since Oct 19, 2022; 20 years since Oct 1, 1993; no 30 years from Feb 19, 2002 to Feb 8, 2006.
- Charts: the last business day of each week, and every day of the last year; the date picker and the tables use every day.
- Spread: the 10-year yield minus the 2-year, in percentage points (1 pp = 100 basis points).
- Inversions: runs of business days with the spread below zero; runs less than 90 days apart count as one inversion. A recession followed when an NBER business cycle peak came within 24 months of the inversion's first day and before the next inversion.
- Recessions: the business cycle dates of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), shaded from the month after a peak through the trough month, as published on November 8, 2026. The NBER dates a recession only months after it starts, so the latest months may still turn out to be one.
- Updates: every night from the sources. The Treasury publishes yields and the debt for each business day; the Fed publishes the rate of the previous business day.
- Not investment advice. Rates, spreads and debt figures do not tell what will happen next.