Rates & debt · Federal Reserve
The federal funds rate since 1954
The overnight rate banks charge each other, which the Federal Reserve raises to cool the economy and cuts to support it: every month since July 1954.
Average in Nov 2026: 3.88% so far. A year earlier (Nov 5, 2025): 3.87%.
Jun 1981; the highest day: 22.36% on Jul 22, 1981
Apr 2020. Near zero (below 0.25%): Dec 2008 – Dec 2015, Apr 2020 – Mar 2022
The effective federal funds rate, month by month
Monthly averages of the daily rate since Jul 1954. The highest single day: 22.36% on July 22, 1981, when the Fed under Paul Volcker fought double-digit inflation. Gray bands: recessions.
Hiking and cutting cycles
Since 1954: 15 hiking cycles and 15 cutting cycles, each a move of the monthly average of at least 1 percentage point and 20% of the rate between a low and a high. The newest first.
| Cycle | Start | End | From → to | Change | Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutting | Aug 2024 | Dec 2025 | 5.33% → 3.63% | −1.70 pp | 16 |
| Hiking | Mar 2022 | Jun 2023 | 0.05% → 5.33% | +5.28 pp | 15 |
| Cutting | Jul 2019 | Apr 2020 | 2.42% → 0.05% | −2.37 pp | 9 |
| Hiking | Dec 2015 | Oct 2018 | 0.07% → 2.42% | +2.35 pp | 34 |
| Cutting | Aug 2007 | Dec 2008 | 5.26% → 0.07% | −5.19 pp | 16 |
| Hiking | Jun 2004 | Jul 2006 | 0.98% → 5.26% | +4.28 pp | 25 |
| Cutting | Dec 2000 | Jun 2003 | 6.54% → 0.98% | −5.56 pp | 30 |
| Hiking | Jun 1999 | Jun 2000 | 4.63% → 6.54% | +1.91 pp | 12 |
| Cutting | Jun 1995 | Dec 1998 | 6.05% → 4.63% | −1.42 pp | 42 |
| Hiking | Jan 1994 | Feb 1995 | 2.92% → 6.05% | +3.13 pp | 13 |
20 earlier cycles, 1954–1990
| Cycle | Start | End | From → to | Change | Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutting | May 1989 | Oct 1992 | 9.85% → 2.92% | −6.93 pp | 41 |
| Hiking | Feb 1987 | Mar 1989 | 5.85% → 9.85% | +4.00 pp | 25 |
| Cutting | Aug 1984 | Sep 1986 | 11.64% → 5.85% | −5.79 pp | 25 |
| Hiking | May 1983 | Aug 1984 | 8.51% → 11.64% | +3.13 pp | 15 |
| Cutting | Jul 1981 | Jan 1983 | 19.10% → 8.51% | −10.59 pp | 18 |
| Hiking | Jul 1980 | Dec 1980 | 9.03% → 19.10% | +10.07 pp | 5 |
| Cutting | Apr 1980 | Jul 1980 | 17.61% → 9.03% | −8.58 pp | 3 |
| Hiking | Apr 1977 | Apr 1980 | 4.61% → 17.61% | +13.00 pp | 36 |
| Cutting | Jul 1974 | Feb 1976 | 12.92% → 4.61% | −8.31 pp | 19 |
| Hiking | Feb 1972 | Jul 1974 | 3.30% → 12.92% | +9.62 pp | 29 |
| Cutting | Sep 1971 | Jan 1972 | 5.57% → 3.30% | −2.27 pp | 4 |
| Hiking | Mar 1971 | Aug 1971 | 3.71% → 5.57% | +1.86 pp | 5 |
| Cutting | Feb 1970 | Feb 1971 | 9.19% → 3.71% | −5.48 pp | 12 |
| Hiking | Oct 1967 | Aug 1969 | 3.79% → 9.19% | +5.40 pp | 22 |
| Cutting | Nov 1966 | May 1967 | 5.76% → 3.79% | −1.97 pp | 6 |
| Hiking | Jul 1961 | Aug 1966 | 1.17% → 5.76% | +4.59 pp | 61 |
| Cutting | May 1960 | Jul 1961 | 4.00% → 1.17% | −2.83 pp | 14 |
| Hiking | Jul 1958 | Sep 1959 | 0.63% → 4.00% | +3.37 pp | 14 |
| Cutting | Nov 1957 | May 1958 | 3.50% → 0.63% | −2.87 pp | 6 |
| Hiking | Nov 1954the data start in Jul 1954 | Sep 1957 | 0.80% → 3.50% | +2.70 pp | 34 |
Since its low of 3.63% in May 2026, the rate has risen to 3.88% (Nov 2026): less than the 1 point that counts as a new cycle here.
Monthly averages smooth the steps of the Fed's decisions, so a cycle's first and last month can differ by a month from its first and last decision. Before the 1980s the rate swung widely from month to month, and not every swing was a policy decision.
How the numbers are made
- The rate: the effective federal funds rate, at which banks lend reserves to each other overnight, the rate the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) steers. Since March 2016 a volume-weighted median of overnight trades, calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; before that a volume-weighted mean of brokered trades. The FOMC has announced its target after each decision since 1994 and a target range since December 2008; this page shows the rate actually paid.
- Monthly averages of the daily rate (weekends and holidays carry the rate of the business day before, as the Fed publishes it); the latest month is the average of its days so far.
- After inflation (the switch at the top): the monthly average minus the rise in US consumer prices (CPI-U, from Shiller's data) over the 12 months to that month, a backward-looking real rate. No value after Oct 2026, the latest month with prices; the latest months of the CPI are preliminary.
- Cycles: our own rule, not the Fed's: a move of the monthly average between a low and a high of at least 1 percentage point and 20% of the rate; swings shorter than 3 months inside a longer move are ignored. A cycle starts in the last month near the low and ends in the first month near the high (near: within a tenth of the move, 0.1 to 0.25 point).
- Recessions: the business cycle dates of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), shaded from the month after a peak through the trough month, as published on November 8, 2026. The NBER dates a recession only months after it starts, so the latest months may still turn out to be one.
- Updates: every night from the sources. The Treasury publishes yields and the debt for each business day; the Fed publishes the rate of the previous business day.
- Not investment advice. Rates, spreads and debt figures do not tell what will happen next.
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