Portfolio builder · 23 assets · 1871–2026
Build a portfolio. See how it would have done.
Mix stocks, bonds, gold, crypto and cash in any shares, pick the dates and the money. Dividends and coupons are reinvested, inflation is one switch away. The whole portfolio lives in its link: copy it and share.
60% S&P 500 · 30% Treasuries · 10% Gold
$10,000 put in in Jan 2000, held until Oct 2026, rebalanced every January.
Against the S&P 500The same money in the S&P 500 alone became $87,200, +8.4% a year; this mix became $75,400, +7.8% a year. The index's worst fall in these years was −49.0%; the mix's, −24.6%.
The worst stretchFrom Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 the portfolio lost 24.6%. It was back at its high in Apr 2010, 2 years 6 months after the peak.
Gold pulled hardestOn its own it grew ×14.4 over these years, +10.5% a year. The weakest was US 10-year Treasuries: ×2.66, +3.7% a year.
What is inside
| Asset | Share | Share at the end | Growth alone | A year | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 with dividends | 60% | 64.4% | ×8.72 | +8.4% | −49.0% |
| US 10-year Treasuries | 30% | 27.3% | ×2.66 | +3.7% | −25.2% |
| Gold | 10% | 8.3% | ×14.4 | +10.5% | −39.3% |
“Alone” is the asset by itself over the same dates, with no payments. The share at the end is what the market and the last rebalancing left.
How deep it fell
How far the portfolio stood below its previous high, month by month. Payments are left out, so new money does not hide a fall.
Year by year
| Year | Return | Value at the end of the year |
|---|---|---|
| 2000* | +1.4% | $10,100 |
| 2001 | −5.6% | $9,570 |
| 2002 | −6.0% | $9,000 |
| 2003 | +16.5% | $10,500 |
| 2004 | +10.0% | $11,500 |
| 2005 | +6.5% | $12,300 |
| 2006 | +12.2% | $13,800 |
| 2007 | +9.2% | $15,100 |
| 2008 | −18.4% | $12,300 |
| 2009 | +20.0% | $14,700 |
| 2010 | +12.5% | $16,600 |
| 2011 | +7.8% | $17,900 |
| 2012 | +11.3% | $19,900 |
| 2013 | +12.3% | $22,400 |
| 2014 | +12.0% | $25,100 |
| 2015 | +0.7% | $25,200 |
| 2016 | +7.9% | $27,200 |
| 2017 | +14.4% | $31,100 |
| 2018 | −1.2% | $30,800 |
| 2019 | +20.9% | $37,200 |
| 2020 | +16.6% | $43,400 |
| 2021 | +15.3% | $50,000 |
| 2022 | −13.5% | $43,300 |
| 2023 | +14.5% | $49,500 |
| 2024 | +21.4% | $60,100 |
| 2025 | +17.4% | $70,600 |
| 2026* | +6.8% | $75,400 |
Calendar years, December to December. * Not a full year: the period starts or ends inside it.
Well-known mixes
Each from its own start to today: $10,000 at the start, rebalanced every January. Open one and change anything.
| Mix | Since | $10,000 became | A year | After inflation | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60/4060% S&P 500 · 40% Treasuries | Jan 1972 | $1.45M | +9.5% | +5.4% | −24.7%Oct 2007 – Mar 2009 |
| Permanent portfolio25% S&P 500 · 25% Treasuries · 25% Gold · 25% Cash at interest | Jan 1972 | $968,000 | +8.7% | +4.6% | −12.3%Mar 2008 – Nov 2008 |
| Stocks + gold80% S&P 500 · 20% Gold | Jan 1972 | $3.86M | +11.5% | +7.3% | −37.6%Oct 2007 – Mar 2009 |
| 60/40 + 5% bitcoin57% S&P 500 · 38% Treasuries · 5% Bitcoin | Jan 2013 | $161,000 | +22.4% | +19.1% | −24.9%Nov 2013 – Dec 2013 |
| Bitcoin + gold50% Bitcoin · 50% Gold | Jan 2013 | $14.9M | +70.1% | +65.5% | −55.0%Nov 2013 – Aug 2015 |
Rows with gold start in 1972, when its market price was already moving freely; rows with bitcoin start in 2013, after its thinnest years. The permanent portfolio here holds 10-year Treasuries, not the long bonds of the original recipe.
More
Model portfolios since 1871: 60/40 and other mixes of stocks and bonds through every crisis, decade by decade.
Time Machine: one asset at a time, from any month since 1871.
How this is counted
- Monthly data on one grid from Jan 1871 to Oct 2026. The S&P 500, bond yields, the metals and home prices are monthly averages, which smooth out moves inside a month: the real highs and lows were somewhat more extreme. Crypto is the price on the last day of the month. One step of the calculation is the move from one such point to the next.
- S&P 500: the index with dividends reinvested every month (Robert Shiller's data). Treasuries: a 10-year US government bond bought new every month, coupons reinvested (Shiller's bond returns). Cash at interest: money earning the effective federal funds rate, compounded daily — about what a money-market fund earns before fees; a bank deposit usually pays less. Cash: banknotes, no interest. Metals: the price of the metal, no storage costs. US home prices: Shiller's national index — prices only, no rent, taxes or upkeep, and the index itself cannot be bought. Crypto: reference prices of Coin Metrics.
- Rebalancing brings every asset back to its share: every January, every month or never. Monthly payments are split by the shares.
- Return a year: with one payment, the compound yearly growth. With monthly payments, the money-weighted rate — the yearly rate at which all the payments would have grown into the final value. Falls and year-by-year returns leave payments out.
- After inflation: amounts are turned into dollars of Oct 2026 with the US consumer price index.
- No taxes, fees, spreads or storage costs: a real portfolio would have earned less.
- Early data is rougher. Before 1957 the S&P 500 is a reconstruction (the Cowles Commission index, then Standard & Poor's 90 stocks). Bond yields before April 1953 are one value per year, so bonds look smoother than they were. Gold has one value per year in 1960–1967, around the official $35 an ounce. The first years of each coin come from thin markets: returns from those dates are approximate.
- The link holds the whole portfolio: assets, shares, dates and money. Nothing is stored on the site. A shared link keeps up with new months unless an end date is set.
- Not investment advice: the past does not repeat on request.
Source: Robert J. Shiller (S&P 500, bonds, home prices, inflation). Source: World Bank (gold, silver, platinum; CC BY 4.0). Data: Coin Metrics (crypto prices; CC BY-NC 4.0). Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (federal funds rate).