Glossary · Bonds and rates
Yield curve
The yield curve is a line through the interest rates of one borrower’s bonds, from the shortest maturity to the longest. Usually it slopes up.
Also called: term structure of interest rates, Treasury yield curve, normal yield curve
4.98% minus 4.30%, November 10, 2026: the curve is upward-sloping by this measure.
November 10, 2026.
November 10, 2026.
In plain words
Ask the US government what it pays to borrow for 1 month, 1 year, 10 years and 30 years, and you get a different answer for each. Put those rates on a chart, shortest on the left and longest on the right, join the dots, and you have the yield curve.
Most of the time it slopes up, because lenders want more to tie their money up for longer. Since 1990, the 10-year Treasury yield was above the 3-month one on 88% of days, by 1.4 percentage points on average.
Its shape is a forecast in disguise. When it turns upside down, with short rates above long ones, it is called an inverted yield curve, and in the US that has often come before a recession. Today the 10-year yield is 0.68 percentage points above the 3-month yield (November 10, 2026).
Example
Reading the curve
Say the Treasury yields are: 3 months 4.0%, 2 years 4.2%, 10 years 4.6%, 30 years 4.9%.
- Slope: 10-year minus 3-month = 4.6% − 4.0% = +0.6 points. Positive: a normal, upward curve.
- A saver choosing between a 3-month bill and a 10-year note gets 0.6 points a year more for locking in for 10 years.
- If instead the 3-month bill paid 5.0% and the 10-year note 4.0%, the slope would be −1.0 point: the curve is inverted.
- Lenders accepting less to lock in for longer are telling you they expect short rates to fall.
The slope, long minus short, is the single number most people watch.
One level deeper
Two forces shape the curve. Long yields reflect where markets expect short rates to be over the years ahead: if the Fed is expected to cut, long yields sit lower. On top comes a term premium, extra pay for the risk of holding a long bond whose price can swing a lot.
The short end is pinned by the central bank: a 1-month bill yields about the federal funds rate. The long end is set by the market and depends on growth, inflation and the supply of bonds. That is why the Fed can move short rates at will but long rates only indirectly.
Every borrower has a curve: German government bonds, company bonds, even mortgages. The US Treasury curve is the benchmark; other dollar borrowers pay it plus a credit spread.
The US Treasury yield curve: now and before
Treasury yields by maturity on the latest day, a year earlier, and on the most inverted day since 1990, when 3-month bills paid far more than 10-year notes. Hover or tap a maturity to compare.
The numbers behind the chart
| November 10, 2026 (latest) | November 10, 2025 | June 1, 2023 (most inverted) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo | 4.05% | 4.04% | 5.30% |
| 2 mo | 4.21% | 4.00% | 5.39% |
| 3 mo | 4.30% | 3.95% | 5.50% |
| 4 mo | 4.28% | 3.85% | 5.50% |
| 6 mo | 4.38% | 3.79% | 5.44% |
| 1 yr | 4.56% | 3.66% | 5.11% |
| 2 yr | 4.73% | 3.58% | 4.33% |
| 3 yr | 4.74% | 3.56% | 3.98% |
| 5 yr | 4.81% | 3.72% | 3.70% |
| 7 yr | 4.89% | 3.90% | 3.66% |
| 10 yr | 4.98% | 4.13% | 3.61% |
| 20 yr | 5.39% | 4.69% | 3.98% |
| 30 yr | 5.35% | 4.71% | 3.84% |
Why it matters
Banks borrow short and lend long, so the slope of the curve drives their profits and how freely they lend.
It sets the trade-off for savers and borrowers: whether to lock in a rate for years or stay short, and whether to choose a fixed or a variable rate.
Its slope is one of the best-known recession signals: see inverted yield curve.
A common mistake
Myth: The Fed controls the whole yield curve.
In fact: It sets only an overnight rate, which anchors the short end. Long yields are set by investors and can move the other way: in late 2024 the Fed cut its rate while 10-year yields rose.
Questions people ask
What does a steep yield curve mean?
Long yields well above short ones. It usually appears after the Fed has cut rates to fight a downturn, when markets expect growth and rates to pick up later.
Which yield curve do people mean?
Usually the US Treasury curve, built from the yields of government debt from 1 month to 30 years, which the Treasury publishes every business day. Our Treasury yields page shows it for any day since 1990.
What is the 2s10s spread?
The 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield, another common measure of the slope. On November 10, 2026 it was +0.25 percentage points.
Read more on BigCapital
About the numbers
- The numbers on this page are recalculated from the data every night; the sources are listed at the end of the page.
- US Treasury par yield curve rates: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (Interest Rate Statistics).
- This page explains a term. It is not investment advice.