Glossary · Stocks and markets
Bull market
A bull market is a long rise in stock prices, usually counted as a gain of 20% or more from a low, with investors growing more confident.
Also called: bull run, bullish market, rising market
S&P 500 since its low in Oct 2022 (4 years), monthly averages, price only.
In plain words
A bull attacks by thrusting its horns up; a bear swipes its paws down. That, at least, is the story people tell about why a rising market is a bull market and a falling one a bear market.
The usual rule: a bull market begins when stocks have risen 20% or more from a low, and lasts until they fall 20% or more from a peak. Along the way there are dips and corrections, but the trend points up, and so does the mood: rising profits, eager buyers and plenty of new IPOs.
Counting with monthly averages, the S&P 500 has had 12 bull markets since 1932 that have already ended, lasting 6 years on average. The one under way began in Oct 2022, and prices are up +107% since then.
Example
Dating a bull market
- An index falls to a low of 1,000 in March.
- By August it reaches 1,200, up 20% from the low. Now a bull market is “confirmed”, and it is dated back to the March low.
- It keeps climbing, with a 12% dip along the way (a correction, not the end), to a peak of 2,500 three years later.
- When it falls to 2,000, 20% below the peak, the bull market is over. Its gain is counted from 1,000 to 2,500: +150%.
Bull markets are dated with hindsight: nobody rings a bell at the low or at the peak.
One level deeper
The 20% rule is a convention, not a law of nature: you can count with daily closes or monthly averages, with prices or total returns, and get slightly different lists. We use monthly averages of the S&P 500 since 1871, which smooth out the sharpest days, so some short, famous swings are smaller here than in daily data.
Bull markets usually last much longer than bear markets. The biggest since 1932 was 2009–21, when prices rose 517%. The median gain was +103%.
Long bull markets often end in excess: high valuations, lots of borrowed money, a wave of IPOs and talk that “this time is different”. Others end with a recession or with rising interest rates.
Every bull market since 1932, by its gain
The rise of the S&P 500 from each low to the next peak, using monthly average prices, without dividends. The last bar is the bull market still under way, measured to Oct 2026.
The numbers behind the chart
| Rise from the low | |
|---|---|
| 1932 | 73% |
| 1933–34 | 82% |
| 1935–37 | 115% |
| 1938 | 32% |
| 1942–46 | 138% |
| 1949–61 | 414% |
| 1962–68 | 91% |
| 1970–73 | 57% |
| 1974–87 | 391% |
| 1987–2000 | 516% |
| 2003–07 | 84% |
| 2009–21 | 517% |
| Since 2022 | 107% |
Why it matters
Most of the stock market’s long-run gain is made in bull markets, which have covered most of the time.
They shape behavior: rising prices draw in new investors, often near the end rather than at the start.
Dips and corrections are a normal part of them: a fall of 10% does not by itself mean a bull market is over.
A common mistake
Myth: A bull market dies of old age.
In fact: Length alone has not ended them: the one of 2009–21 lasted 13 years. Bull markets end when something changes: profits fall, interest rates rise, or prices run far ahead of what companies earn.
Questions people ask
How long do bull markets last?
Counting with monthly averages, the S&P 500’s bull markets since 1932 lasted 6 years on average, and prices rose 209% from low to peak (the median rise was +103%).
Are we in a bull market?
By the 20% rule on monthly averages, yes: the S&P 500 has risen 107% since its low in Oct 2022 and has not fallen 20% since.
Why is it called a bull market?
Nobody knows for sure. The popular explanation is how the animals fight: a bull thrusts its horns upward, a bear swipes its paws down. Both words were in use on the London stock market in the 1700s.
Read more on BigCapital
About the numbers
- The numbers on this page are recalculated from the data every night; the sources are listed at the end of the page.
- S&P Composite price and total return since 1871, and US consumer prices: Robert J. Shiller, Online Data (shillerdata.com); total return with dividends reinvested monthly, calculated by BigCapital.
- Turning points found in monthly averages of daily closes: a low or a peak is confirmed only after the next 20% move. Lists based on daily closes include a few more episodes (2020 among them) and date them to the day.
- This page explains a term. It is not investment advice.