Article · Rates and debt
Federal Reserve interest rates
The federal funds rate — the overnight rate the Federal Reserve steers — was 3.88% on November 5, 2026. Its last move was a rise: +0.25 pp on September 17, 2026, from 3.63% to 3.88%. Since 1954 the rate has been as high as 22.36% and as low as 0.04%.
last move +0.25 pp on Sep 17, 2026; a year earlier 3.87%
Oct 2026: the rate 3.88% minus inflation 3.2%
Jun 1981; one day at 22.36% (Jul 22, 1981)
15 hiking, 15 cutting; the biggest hike +13.00 pp in 1977–80
21 hikes and 11 cuts; the largest −0.94 pp on Mar 16, 2020
3.88%: the rate now and its last move
The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend each other reserves overnight. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve sets a target for it — a target range since December 2008 — and the market rate, the effective rate shown here, trades inside it. On November 5, 2026 it was 3.88%.
The last move came on September 17, 2026: +0.25 pp, from 3.63% to 3.88%, 49 days before the latest data. A year earlier, on November 5, 2025, the rate was 3.87% (+0.01 pp since). It was the first hike after 6 cuts in 2024–25 (−1.69 pp in all).
Every move since 2008, in quarter points
Since December 2008, when the FOMC began to set a target range, the rate has moved 32 times: 21 hikes and 11 cuts. Each column below is one move and each brick a quarter of a percentage point, the Fed's usual step; moves in a row in the same direction stand together.
The largest single move was −0.94 pp on March 16, 2020. The last long run of hikes, 2022–23, had 11 hikes, +5.25 pp in all, from March 2022 to July 2023.
Every move as a table
| Date | Before | After | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | 3.63% | 3.88% | +0.25 pp |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3.89% | 3.64% | −0.25 pp |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 4.11% | 3.87% | −0.24 pp |
| Sep 18, 2025 | 4.33% | 4.09% | −0.24 pp |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 4.58% | 4.33% | −0.25 pp |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 4.83% | 4.58% | −0.25 pp |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 5.33% | 4.83% | −0.50 pp |
| Jul 27, 2023 | 5.08% | 5.33% | +0.25 pp |
| May 4, 2023 | 4.83% | 5.08% | +0.25 pp |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 4.58% | 4.83% | +0.25 pp |
| Feb 2, 2023 | 4.33% | 4.58% | +0.25 pp |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3.83% | 4.33% | +0.50 pp |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3.08% | 3.83% | +0.75 pp |
| Sep 22, 2022 | 2.33% | 3.08% | +0.75 pp |
| Jul 28, 2022 | 1.58% | 2.33% | +0.75 pp |
| Jun 16, 2022 | 0.83% | 1.58% | +0.75 pp |
| May 5, 2022 | 0.33% | 0.83% | +0.50 pp |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 0.08% | 0.33% | +0.25 pp |
| Mar 16, 2020 | 1.09% | 0.15% | −0.94 pp |
| Mar 4, 2020 | 1.58% | 1.09% | −0.49 pp |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 1.85% | 1.55% | −0.30 pp |
| Sep 19, 2019 | 2.13% | 1.90% | −0.23 pp |
| Aug 1, 2019 | 2.40% | 2.12% | −0.28 pp |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 2.20% | 2.40% | +0.20 pp |
| Sep 27, 2018 | 1.92% | 2.18% | +0.26 pp |
| Jun 14, 2018 | 1.70% | 1.92% | +0.22 pp |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 1.42% | 1.68% | +0.26 pp |
| Dec 14, 2017 | 1.16% | 1.42% | +0.26 pp |
| Jun 15, 2017 | 0.91% | 1.16% | +0.25 pp |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 0.66% | 0.91% | +0.25 pp |
| Dec 15, 2016 | 0.41% | 0.66% | +0.25 pp |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 0.14% | 0.36% | +0.22 pp |
Every month since 1954
Each step is one month's average. The rate peaked at 19.10% in June 1981, when consumer prices were 9.6% higher than a year before; on a single day, July 22, 1981, it reached 22.36%. The lowest day was December 30, 2011, at 0.04%.
In all, the monthly average stayed below 0.25% for 109 months, about 9.1 years: Dec 2008 – Dec 2015 and Apr 2020 – Mar 2022. Hiking and cutting cycles are marked on the steps and labelled with how far each one moved.
Hiking and cutting cycles
A cycle here is our own rule, not the Fed's: a move of the monthly average between a low and a high of at least 1 percentage point and 20% of the rate. By that rule the rate went through 15 hiking cycles and 15 cutting cycles since 1954. Below, every cycle starts at zero on the same scales, so you can see how fast and how far each one went.
The median hiking cycle lifted the rate by 4.00 pp over 22 months; the median cutting cycle lowered it by 5.19 pp over 16 months. The latest cycle, a cutting cycle in 2024–25, took the rate from 5.33% to 3.63%. Since its low in May 2026 the rate has risen by 0.25 pp, to 3.88% in November 2026: not a new cycle by the 1-point rule, at least not yet.
The biggest and fastest hikes
The biggest hiking cycle took the rate from 4.61% to 17.61% in 1977–80: +13.00 pp in 36 months. The fastest, in points a year, was 1980: +10.07 pp in 5 months, or 24.2 points a year.
The latest hiking cycle, 2022–23, lifted the rate from 0.05% to 5.33%: +5.28 pp in 15 months, 4.2 points a year. It is the 5th biggest of 15 and the 4th fastest.
| # | Cycle | Rise | From → to | Months | Points a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1977–80Apr 1977 – Apr 1980 | 4.61% → 17.61% | 36 | 4.3 | |
| 2 | 1980Jul 1980 – Dec 1980 | 9.03% → 19.10% | 5 | 24.2 fastest | |
| 3 | 1972–74Feb 1972 – Jul 1974 | 3.30% → 12.92% | 29 | 4.0 | |
| 4 | 1967–69Oct 1967 – Aug 1969 | 3.79% → 9.19% | 22 | 2.9 | |
| 5 | 2022–23Mar 2022 – Jun 2023 | 0.05% → 5.33% | 15 | 4.2 | |
| 6 | 1961–66Jul 1961 – Aug 1966 | 1.17% → 5.76% | 61 | 0.9 | |
| 7 | 2004–06Jun 2004 – Jul 2006 | 0.98% → 5.26% | 25 | 2.1 | |
| 8 | 1987–89Feb 1987 – Mar 1989 | 5.85% → 9.85% | 25 | 1.9 | |
| 9 | 1958–59Jul 1958 – Sep 1959 | 0.63% → 4.00% | 14 | 2.9 | |
| 10 | 1983–84May 1983 – Aug 1984 | 8.51% → 11.64% | 15 | 2.5 | |
| 11 | 1994–95Jan 1994 – Feb 1995 | 2.92% → 6.05% | 13 | 2.9 | |
| 12 | 1954–57*Nov 1954 – Sep 1957 | 0.80% → 3.50% | 34 | 1.0 | |
| 13 | 2015–18Dec 2015 – Oct 2018 | 0.07% → 2.42% | 34 | 0.8 | |
| 14 | 1999–2000Jun 1999 – Jun 2000 | 4.63% → 6.54% | 12 | 1.9 | |
| 15 | 1971Mar 1971 – Aug 1971 | 3.71% → 5.57% | 5 | 4.5 |
* Starts with the first month of the data, Jul 1954; the rise may have begun earlier.
Cutting cycles, biggest first
| # | Cycle | Fall | From → to | Months | Points a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1981–83Jul 1981 – Jan 1983 | −10.59 pp | 19.10% → 8.51% | 18 | 7.1 |
| 2 | 1980Apr 1980 – Jul 1980 | −8.58 pp | 17.61% → 9.03% | 3 | 34.3 |
| 3 | 1974–76Jul 1974 – Feb 1976 | −8.31 pp | 12.92% → 4.61% | 19 | 5.2 |
| 4 | 1989–92May 1989 – Oct 1992 | −6.93 pp | 9.85% → 2.92% | 41 | 2.0 |
| 5 | 1984–86Aug 1984 – Sep 1986 | −5.79 pp | 11.64% → 5.85% | 25 | 2.8 |
| 6 | 2000–03Dec 2000 – Jun 2003 | −5.56 pp | 6.54% → 0.98% | 30 | 2.2 |
| 7 | 1970–71Feb 1970 – Feb 1971 | −5.48 pp | 9.19% → 3.71% | 12 | 5.5 |
| 8 | 2007–08Aug 2007 – Dec 2008 | −5.19 pp | 5.26% → 0.07% | 16 | 3.9 |
| 9 | 1957–58Nov 1957 – May 1958 | −2.87 pp | 3.50% → 0.63% | 6 | 5.7 |
| 10 | 1960–61May 1960 – Jul 1961 | −2.83 pp | 4.00% → 1.17% | 14 | 2.4 |
| 11 | 2019–20Jul 2019 – Apr 2020 | −2.37 pp | 2.42% → 0.05% | 9 | 3.2 |
| 12 | 1971–72Sep 1971 – Jan 1972 | −2.27 pp | 5.57% → 3.30% | 4 | 6.8 |
| 13 | 1966–67Nov 1966 – May 1967 | −1.97 pp | 5.76% → 3.79% | 6 | 3.9 |
| 14 | 2024–25†Aug 2024 – Dec 2025 | −1.70 pp | 5.33% → 3.63% | 16 | 1.3 |
| 15 | 1995–98Jun 1995 – Dec 1998 | −1.42 pp | 6.05% → 4.63% | 42 | 0.4 |
† The latest cycle: its end (May 2026) can still change as new months arrive.
The rate after inflation
What a rate is worth depends on inflation. Take away the rise in consumer prices over the past 12 months and you get the real rate. In October 2026 the rate averaged 3.88% and prices were 3.2% higher than a year earlier, so after inflation the rate was +0.63%: above zero since June 2026 (5 months).
Since 1954, the rate after inflation was below zero in 32% of months. It was lowest in Mar 2022, at −8.34%, when prices were rising 8.5% a year and the rate was 0.20%; highest in Jun 1981, at +9.55% (19.10% against inflation of 9.6%). The longest stretch below zero lasted 62 months, from Nov 2009 to Dec 2014. The switch turns the strip below from the rate to the rate after inflation.
Year by year: the rate, inflation and the rate after inflation
| Year | Rate, average | Inflation | After inflation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026* | 3.69% | 3.3% | +0.4% |
| 2025 | 4.21% | 2.7% | +1.5% |
| 2024 | 5.14% | 3.0% | +2.2% |
| 2023 | 5.02% | 4.1% | +0.9% |
| 2022 | 1.68% | 8.0% | −6.3% |
| 2021 | 0.08% | 4.7% | −4.6% |
| 2020 | 0.38% | 1.2% | −0.9% |
| 2019 | 2.16% | 1.8% | +0.3% |
| 2018 | 1.83% | 2.4% | −0.6% |
| 2017 | 1.00% | 2.1% | −1.1% |
| 2016 | 0.40% | 1.3% | −0.9% |
| 2015 | 0.13% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 0.09% | 1.6% | −1.5% |
| 2013 | 0.11% | 1.5% | −1.4% |
| 2012 | 0.14% | 2.1% | −1.9% |
| 2011 | 0.10% | 3.2% | −3.1% |
| 2010 | 0.18% | 1.6% | −1.5% |
| 2009 | 0.16% | −0.3% | +0.5% |
| 2008 | 1.93% | 3.8% | −1.9% |
| 2007 | 5.02% | 2.9% | +2.2% |
| 2006 | 4.96% | 3.2% | +1.7% |
| 2005 | 3.21% | 3.4% | −0.2% |
| 2004 | 1.35% | 2.7% | −1.3% |
| 2003 | 1.13% | 2.3% | −1.1% |
| 2002 | 1.67% | 1.6% | +0.1% |
| 2001 | 3.89% | 2.8% | +1.1% |
| 2000 | 6.24% | 3.4% | +2.9% |
| 1999 | 4.97% | 2.2% | +2.8% |
| 1998 | 5.35% | 1.6% | +3.8% |
| 1997 | 5.46% | 2.3% | +3.1% |
| 1996 | 5.30% | 2.9% | +2.4% |
| 1995 | 5.84% | 2.8% | +3.0% |
| 1994 | 4.20% | 2.6% | +1.6% |
| 1993 | 3.02% | 3.0% | +0.1% |
| 1992 | 3.52% | 3.0% | +0.5% |
| 1991 | 5.69% | 4.3% | +1.4% |
| 1990 | 8.10% | 5.4% | +2.7% |
| 1989 | 9.22% | 4.8% | +4.4% |
| 1988 | 7.57% | 4.1% | +3.5% |
| 1987 | 6.66% | 3.7% | +3.0% |
| 1986 | 6.80% | 1.9% | +4.9% |
| 1985 | 8.10% | 3.5% | +4.6% |
| 1984 | 10.22% | 4.3% | +5.9% |
| 1983 | 9.09% | 3.2% | +5.9% |
| 1982 | 12.26% | 6.2% | +6.1% |
| 1981 | 16.38% | 10.4% | +6.0% |
| 1980 | 13.36% | 13.6% | −0.2% |
| 1979 | 11.19% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| 1978 | 7.93% | 7.6% | +0.3% |
| 1977 | 5.54% | 6.5% | −1.0% |
| 1976 | 5.04% | 5.8% | −0.7% |
| 1975 | 5.82% | 9.2% | −3.4% |
| 1974 | 10.50% | 11.0% | −0.5% |
| 1973 | 8.73% | 6.2% | +2.6% |
| 1972 | 4.43% | 3.3% | +1.2% |
| 1971 | 4.66% | 4.3% | +0.4% |
| 1970 | 7.18% | 5.8% | +1.3% |
| 1969 | 8.20% | 5.5% | +2.7% |
| 1968 | 5.66% | 4.3% | +1.4% |
| 1967 | 4.22% | 2.8% | +1.4% |
| 1966 | 5.11% | 3.0% | +2.1% |
| 1965 | 4.08% | 1.6% | +2.5% |
| 1964 | 3.50% | 1.3% | +2.2% |
| 1963 | 3.18% | 1.2% | +1.9% |
| 1962 | 2.71% | 1.2% | +1.5% |
| 1961 | 1.96% | 1.1% | +0.9% |
| 1960 | 3.22% | 1.5% | +1.8% |
| 1959 | 3.30% | 1.0% | +2.3% |
| 1958 | 1.57% | 2.7% | −1.2% |
| 1957 | 3.10% | 3.3% | −0.2% |
| 1956 | 2.73% | 1.5% | +1.2% |
| 1955 | 1.79% | −0.3% | +2.1% |
| 1954* | 1.01% | −0.3% | +1.3% |
* Part of a year: from the first month of the data, or to Nov 2026 (the rate) and Oct 2026 (prices). Yearly figures are averages of the months.
The Fed's rate and Treasury yields
The Fed sets the shortest rate; markets set the rest. On November 6, 2026 the 2-year Treasury yield was 4.51%, above the federal funds rate of 3.88%, and the 10-year yield 4.86%, above it.
Markets move first: in the 6 months before the 2022–23 hikes began in March 2022, the 2-year yield rose from 0.24% to 1.91%, while the federal funds rate was still 0.20%.
Questions people ask
What is the Fed interest rate right now?
The effective federal funds rate was 3.88% on November 5, 2026. Its last move, +0.25 pp on September 17, 2026, took it from 3.63% to 3.88%.
When did the Fed last change interest rates?
The effective rate last moved on September 17, 2026 (+0.25 pp). The FOMC announces its decisions after its meetings; the effective rate moves when the new target takes effect, usually the next day.
What is the highest the Fed rate has ever been?
The monthly average peaked at 19.10% in June 1981; the highest single day was July 22, 1981, at 22.36%. The lowest day was December 30, 2011, at 0.04%.
How many times did the Fed raise rates in 2022–23?
11 hikes from March 2022 to July 2023, +5.25 pp in all. Since December 2008 the rate has moved 32 times: 21 hikes and 11 cuts.
What is the real federal funds rate?
The rate minus inflation. In October 2026: 3.88% minus 3.2% = +0.63%. Since 1954 it has been below zero in 32% of months.
Go deeper
How the numbers are calculated
- Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15 Selected Interest Rates: the effective federal funds rate, every day since July 1954. Since March 2016 the rate is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Monthly averages of the daily rate; weekends and holidays carry the rate of the business day before, as published. The latest month is the average of its days so far.
- Moves since December 2008: business days on which the rate jumped and the median of the next 10 business days differs from the median of the 10 before by at least 0.125 point. Before the target range the daily rate swung too much for this rule, so moves are counted only since then.
- Cycles: our own rule, the same as on the federal funds rate page: a move of the monthly average between a low and a high of at least 1 percentage point and 20% of the rate; swings shorter than 3 months inside a longer move are ignored. A cycle starts in the last month near the low and ends in the first month near the high (near: within a tenth of the move, 0.1 to 0.25 point). Points a year = the move ÷ its months × 12.
- After inflation: the monthly average minus the rise in US consumer prices (CPI, from Robert J. Shiller's data) over the 12 months to that month, a backward-looking real rate. No value after Oct 2026, the latest month with prices.
- Treasury yields: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (public domain); monthly averages of business days.
- Shaded: US recessions by the business cycle dates of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), from the month after a peak to the trough.
- Shiller's notes on the latest months of prices: Oct price is Oct 2nd close; Sept/Oct CPI estimated; Oct GS10 is Oct 2nd value.
- History, not a forecast. Nothing here is investment advice.
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