Time machine · 1871–2026 · with dividends, after inflation
What if you had invested…
Pick an amount, the dates and the assets. See what the money would have become — in dollars of the time and in today's dollars — with dividends and coupons reinvested.
Money put in: $10,000 in January 2000, that is $19,900 in today's dollars. What it became by October 2026, in today's dollars:
| Asset | Value at the end | In today's dollars | Purchasing power | A year, nominal | A year, real | Worst fall | Worst fall, real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | $87,200 | $87,200 | ×4.38 | 8.4% | 5.7% | −49.0%Oct 2007 – Mar 2009 | −51.8% |
| Treasuries | $26,600 | $26,600 | ×1.34 | 3.7% | 1.1% | −25.2%Jul 2020 – Oct 2023 | −37.3% |
| Gold | $144,000 | $144,000 | ×7.26 | 10.5% | 7.7% | −39.3%Sep 2011 – Dec 2015 | −41.8% |
| Cash | $10,000 | $10,000 | ×0.5 | 0.0% | −2.5% | 0.0% | −49.7% |
Nominal: dollars of each date. Real: after US inflation. Purchasing power: what the final sum buys compared with the money put in. Worst fall: the largest drop of the asset from a high to a later low within the period, by monthly values.
Gold did best$144,000 in today's dollars: purchasing power grew 7.26 times, 7.7% a year after inflation.
Cash under the mattress did worst$10,000 in today's dollars: purchasing power fell by 49.7%, −2.5% a year after inflation.
Prices rose by 98.9%A dollar kept as cash from the start lost 49.7% of its purchasing power over the period.
$10,000 invested at the start of a year: worth in Oct 2026
Lump sum invested in January of each year; values in Oct 2026, in today's dollars. The second column is what $10,000 of that year is in today's money: the bar an investment had to clear just to keep up with prices.
| Invested in January | $10,000 then, in today's dollars | S&P 500 | Treasuries | Gold | Bitcoin | Ether | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1871 | $269,000 | $11.9B | $10.1M | — | — | — | $10,000 |
| 1900 | $425,000 | $1.93B | $2.7M | — | — | — | $10,000 |
| 1929 | $196,000 | $102M | $902,000 | — | — | — | $10,000 |
| 1950 | $143,000 | $47.4M | $463,000 | — | — | — | $10,000 |
| 1960 | $115,000 | $8.48M | $418,000 | $1.16M | — | — | $10,000 |
| 1970 | $88,800 | $3.98M | $330,000 | $1.17M | — | — | $10,000 |
| 1980 | $43,200 | $2.17M | $190,000 | $60,800 | — | — | $10,000 |
| 1990 | $26,400 | $466,000 | $57,200 | $100,000 | — | — | $10,000 |
| 2000 | $19,900 | $87,200 | $26,600 | $144,000 | — | — | $10,000 |
| 2008 | $15,900 | $79,300 | $14,700 | $46,100 | — | — | $10,000 |
| 2011 | $15,200 | $79,400 | $12,900 | $30,200 | $1.47B | — | $10,000 |
| 2013 | $14,600 | $66,100 | $10,900 | $24,600 | $37.7M | — | $10,000 |
| 2016 | $14,200 | $48,000 | $10,300 | $37,400 | $2.11M | $10M | $10,000 |
| 2018 | $13,500 | $31,700 | $10,400 | $30,800 | $77,000 | $20,500 | $10,000 |
| 2020 | $13,000 | $26,000 | $9,170 | $26,300 | $82,700 | $125,000 | $10,000 |
| 2022 | $11,900 | $18,000 | $8,970 | $22,600 | $20,100 | $8,380 | $10,000 |
| 2024 | $10,900 | $16,600 | $10,200 | $20,200 | $18,200 | $9,860 | $10,000 |
Bitcoin and ether are bought at the end of January. Linked numbers lead to a detailed page.
If you had invested $1,000…
Ready answers to the questions people ask most, in today's dollars:
Model portfolios: stocks and bonds together
How it is calculated
- What is counted. S&P 500: the index with dividends reinvested every month (Robert Shiller's data; before 1957 a reconstruction, see the S&P 500 page). Treasuries: a 10-year US government bond bought new every month, coupons reinvested (Shiller's bond returns). Gold: the World Bank's monthly average price. Bitcoin and ether: the Coin Metrics price on the last day of each month. Cash: dollars kept at home, earning nothing.
- Monthly steps. Money goes in at a month's value and the result is read at the end month's value. Shiller's S&P 500 prices, the bond yields and gold are monthly averages, which smooth out moves inside a month: the real highs and lows were somewhat more extreme.
- Every month means one payment in each month from the start month to the end month, both included. Its yearly return is the internal rate of return: the steady rate that would turn the same payments into the same final sum.
- Worst fall is the largest drop from a high to a later low within the period, using the monthly values; “real” also counts inflation. Falls inside a month are not seen.
- Early data is rougher. Bond yields before April 1953 are one value per year, interpolated by month, so bond falls before then look smoother than they were. Gold has one value per year in 1960–1967, around the official $35 an ounce. Bitcoin prices in 2010–2012 come from very thin markets, mostly one exchange (Mt. Gox), and ether's first weeks in August 2015 were thin too: returns from those dates are approximate.
- Today's dollars are Oct 2026 dollars: a value is multiplied by the rise in US consumer prices (CPI-U; before 1913 the Warren and Pearson reconstruction) from its date to Oct 2026. “Real” returns are after this inflation.
- No taxes, fees or spreads. Real investors paid commissions, fund fees, and taxes on dividends, coupons and gains, so they kept less than shown here.
- Preliminary data. S&P 500 dividends from July 2026 on are estimated from the last known value. Shiller's notes on the latest month: Oct price is Oct 2nd close; Sept/Oct CPI estimated; Oct GS10 is Oct 2nd value.
Source: Robert J. Shiller (S&P 500, bonds, inflation) · Source: World Bank (gold, CC BY 4.0) · Data: Coin Metrics (bitcoin, ether; CC BY-NC 4.0)