Time machine · Treasuries · 2000–2026
If you had invested $1,000 in US 10-year Treasury bonds in 2000
Month by month, in dollars of each date and in today's dollars, with the worst fall on the way and the same money in other assets.
That is what $1,000 put in US 10-year Treasury bonds in January 2000 would be worth by October 2026. Prices rose by 98.9% in that time, so its purchasing power grew by 33.7%: 1.1% a year after inflation, 3.7% before.
The same money elsewhereOver the same years it would have become $8,720 in the S&P 500, $14,400 in gold (in today's dollars). Kept as cash, its purchasing power fell by 49.7%.
On the way it fell 25.2%From $3,240 in Jul 2020 to $2,420 in Oct 2023, in dollars of those dates.
A constant 10-year bondAs in Shiller's data, a new 10-year Treasury is bought every month and the old one sold, with coupons reinvested; yields are monthly averages. Holding a single bond to maturity would have taken a different path.
No taxes or feesThe numbers ignore taxes, fees, commissions and spreads: a real investor would have kept somewhat less.
Try another amount, dates or assets in the time machine
The same $1,000 in other assets, Jan 2000 – Oct 2026
| Asset | Worth in Oct 2026 | Purchasing power | A year, real | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 with dividends | $8,720 | ×4.38 | 5.7% | −49.0% |
| US 10-year Treasuries | $2,660 | ×1.34 | 1.1% | −25.2% |
| Gold | $14,400 | ×7.26 | 7.7% | −39.3% |
| Cash under the mattress | $1,000 | ×0.5 | −2.5% | 0.0% |
Lump sum, in today's dollars; real means after inflation. Source: Robert J. Shiller (S&P 500, bonds, inflation) · Source: World Bank (gold, CC BY 4.0)
Year by year
| Date | Value | In today's dollars | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2000 | $1,000 | $1,990 | |
| Jan 2001 | $1,190 | $2,280 | 18.7% |
| Jan 2002 | $1,260 | $2,390 | 6.0% |
| Jan 2003 | $1,420 | $2,630 | 13.2% |
| Jan 2004 | $1,470 | $2,660 | 3.1% |
| Jan 2005 | $1,520 | $2,680 | 3.7% |
| Jan 2006 | $1,560 | $2,650 | 2.7% |
| Jan 2007 | $1,600 | $2,650 | 2.1% |
| Jan 2008 | $1,810 | $2,880 | 13.6% |
| Jan 2009 | $2,080 | $3,310 | 14.8% |
| Jan 2010 | $1,940 | $3,000 | −6.9% |
| Jan 2011 | $2,060 | $3,130 | 6.1% |
| Jan 2012 | $2,390 | $3,540 | 16.2% |
| Jan 2013 | $2,440 | $3,560 | 2.3% |
| Jan 2014 | $2,300 | $3,300 | −5.9% |
| Jan 2015 | $2,570 | $3,690 | 11.8% |
| Jan 2016 | $2,570 | $3,650 | 0.2% |
| Jan 2017 | $2,540 | $3,510 | −1.3% |
| Jan 2018 | $2,570 | $3,480 | 1.0% |
| Jan 2019 | $2,610 | $3,480 | 1.8% |
| Jan 2020 | $2,900 | $3,780 | 11.0% |
| Jan 2021 | $3,110 | $4,000 | 7.3% |
| Jan 2022 | $2,960 | $3,540 | −4.8% |
| Jan 2023 | $2,610 | $2,930 | −11.9% |
| Jan 2024 | $2,600 | $2,830 | −0.5% |
| Jan 2025 | $2,590 | $2,730 | −0.5% |
| Jan 2026 | $2,790 | $2,880 | 7.9% |
| Oct 2026 | $2,660 | $2,660 | −4.7% |
More scenarios
Treasuries in other years: 1980 · 2000 · 2020
2000 in other assets: S&P 500 · Gold
The calculator and all scenarios · Model portfolios of stocks and bonds
How it is calculated
- What is counted. S&P 500: the index with dividends reinvested every month (Robert Shiller's data; before 1957 a reconstruction, see the S&P 500 page). Treasuries: a 10-year US government bond bought new every month, coupons reinvested (Shiller's bond returns). Gold: the World Bank's monthly average price. Bitcoin and ether: the Coin Metrics price on the last day of each month. Cash: dollars kept at home, earning nothing.
- Monthly steps. Money goes in at a month's value and the result is read at the end month's value. Shiller's S&P 500 prices, the bond yields and gold are monthly averages, which smooth out moves inside a month: the real highs and lows were somewhat more extreme.
- Worst fall is the largest drop from a high to a later low within the period, using the monthly values; “real” also counts inflation. Falls inside a month are not seen.
- Today's dollars are Oct 2026 dollars: a value is multiplied by the rise in US consumer prices (CPI-U; before 1913 the Warren and Pearson reconstruction) from its date to Oct 2026. “Real” returns are after this inflation.
- No taxes, fees or spreads. Real investors paid commissions, fund fees, and taxes on dividends, coupons and gains, so they kept less than shown here.
- Preliminary data. S&P 500 dividends from July 2026 on are estimated from the last known value. Shiller's notes on the latest month: Oct price is Oct 2nd close; Sept/Oct CPI estimated; Oct GS10 is Oct 2nd value.