Time machine · Bitcoin · 2022–2026
If you had invested $1,000 in bitcoin in 2022
Month by month, in dollars of each date and in today's dollars, with the worst fall on the way and the same money in other assets.
That is what $1,000 put in bitcoin in January 2022 at $38,500 a coin (the month's last price) would be worth by October 2026. Prices rose by 19.4% in that time, so its purchasing power grew by 68.5%: 11.6% a year after inflation, 15.9% before.
The same money elsewhereOver the same years it would have become $1,800 in the S&P 500, $897 in Treasuries, $2,260 in gold, $838 in ether (in today's dollars). Kept as cash, its purchasing power fell by 16.3%.
On the way it fell 63.7%From $1,180 in Mar 2022 to $430 in Dec 2022, in dollars of those dates.
Month-end pricesBitcoin and ether are valued at the last daily price of each month (the Coin Metrics reference rate at midnight UTC), while the S&P 500, bonds and gold use monthly averages.
No taxes or feesThe numbers ignore taxes, fees, commissions and spreads: a real investor would have kept somewhat less.
Try another amount, dates or assets in the time machine
The same $1,000 in other assets, Jan 2022 – Oct 2026
| Asset | Worth in Oct 2026 | Purchasing power | A year, real | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 with dividends | $1,800 | ×1.51 | 9.1% | −17.6% |
| US 10-year Treasuries | $897 | ×0.75 | −5.8% | −18.3% |
| Gold | $2,260 | ×1.89 | 14.4% | −18.9% |
| Bitcoin | $2,010 | ×1.68 | 11.6% | −63.7% |
| Ether (Ethereum) | $838 | ×0.7 | −7.2% | −68.3% |
| Cash under the mattress | $1,000 | ×0.84 | −3.7% | 0.0% |
Lump sum, in today's dollars; real means after inflation. Source: Robert J. Shiller (S&P 500, bonds, inflation) · Source: World Bank (gold, CC BY 4.0) · Data: Coin Metrics (bitcoin, ether; CC BY-NC 4.0)
Year by year
| Date | Value | In today's dollars | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2022 | $1,000 | $1,190 | |
| Jan 2023 | $601 | $675 | −39.9% |
| Jan 2024 | $1,110 | $1,210 | 84.1% |
| Jan 2025 | $2,660 | $2,810 | 140.1% |
| Jan 2026 | $2,050 | $2,110 | −23.0% |
| Oct 2026 | $2,010 | $2,010 | −1.7% |
More scenarios
Bitcoin in other years: 2010 · 2011 · 2012 · 2013 · 2014 · 2015 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022
The calculator and all scenarios · Model portfolios of stocks and bonds
How it is calculated
- What is counted. S&P 500: the index with dividends reinvested every month (Robert Shiller's data; before 1957 a reconstruction, see the S&P 500 page). Treasuries: a 10-year US government bond bought new every month, coupons reinvested (Shiller's bond returns). Gold: the World Bank's monthly average price. Bitcoin and ether: the Coin Metrics price on the last day of each month. Cash: dollars kept at home, earning nothing.
- Monthly steps. Money goes in at a month's value and the result is read at the end month's value. Shiller's S&P 500 prices, the bond yields and gold are monthly averages, which smooth out moves inside a month: the real highs and lows were somewhat more extreme.
- Worst fall is the largest drop from a high to a later low within the period, using the monthly values; “real” also counts inflation. Falls inside a month are not seen.
- Today's dollars are Oct 2026 dollars: a value is multiplied by the rise in US consumer prices (CPI-U; before 1913 the Warren and Pearson reconstruction) from its date to Oct 2026. “Real” returns are after this inflation.
- No taxes, fees or spreads. Real investors paid commissions, fund fees, and taxes on dividends, coupons and gains, so they kept less than shown here.
- Preliminary data. S&P 500 dividends from July 2026 on are estimated from the last known value. Shiller's notes on the latest month: Oct price is Oct 2nd close; Sept/Oct CPI estimated; Oct GS10 is Oct 2nd value.