Time machine · Treasuries · 2020–2026
If you had invested $1,000 in US 10-year Treasury bonds in 2020
Month by month, in dollars of each date and in today's dollars, with the worst fall on the way and the same money in other assets.
That is what $1,000 put in US 10-year Treasury bonds in January 2020 would be worth by October 2026. Prices rose by 30.2% in that time, so its purchasing power fell by 29.6%: −5.1% a year after inflation, −1.3% before.
The same money elsewhereOver the same years it would have become $2,600 in the S&P 500, $2,630 in gold, $8,270 in bitcoin, $12,500 in ether (in today's dollars). Kept as cash, its purchasing power fell by 23.2%.
On the way it fell 25.2%From $1,120 in Jul 2020 to $835 in Oct 2023, in dollars of those dates.
A constant 10-year bondAs in Shiller's data, a new 10-year Treasury is bought every month and the old one sold, with coupons reinvested; yields are monthly averages. Holding a single bond to maturity would have taken a different path.
No taxes or feesThe numbers ignore taxes, fees, commissions and spreads: a real investor would have kept somewhat less.
Try another amount, dates or assets in the time machine
The same $1,000 in other assets, Jan 2020 – Oct 2026
| Asset | Worth in Oct 2026 | Purchasing power | A year, real | Worst fall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 with dividends | $2,600 | ×2 | 10.8% | −19.3% |
| US 10-year Treasuries | $917 | ×0.7 | −5.1% | −25.2% |
| Gold | $2,630 | ×2.02 | 11.0% | −18.9% |
| Bitcoin | $8,270 | ×6.36 | 31.5% | −73.1% |
| Ether (Ethereum) | $12,500 | ×9.6 | 39.8% | −77.6% |
| Cash under the mattress | $1,000 | ×0.77 | −3.8% | 0.0% |
Lump sum, in today's dollars; real means after inflation. Source: Robert J. Shiller (S&P 500, bonds, inflation) · Source: World Bank (gold, CC BY 4.0) · Data: Coin Metrics (bitcoin, ether; CC BY-NC 4.0)
Year by year
| Date | Value | In today's dollars | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2020 | $1,000 | $1,300 | |
| Jan 2021 | $1,070 | $1,380 | 7.3% |
| Jan 2022 | $1,020 | $1,220 | −4.8% |
| Jan 2023 | $900 | $1,010 | −11.9% |
| Jan 2024 | $895 | $975 | −0.5% |
| Jan 2025 | $891 | $942 | −0.5% |
| Jan 2026 | $962 | $993 | 7.9% |
| Oct 2026 | $917 | $917 | −4.7% |
More scenarios
Treasuries in other years: 1980 · 2000 · 2020
2020 in other assets: S&P 500 · Bitcoin · Ether · Gold
The calculator and all scenarios · Model portfolios of stocks and bonds
How it is calculated
- What is counted. S&P 500: the index with dividends reinvested every month (Robert Shiller's data; before 1957 a reconstruction, see the S&P 500 page). Treasuries: a 10-year US government bond bought new every month, coupons reinvested (Shiller's bond returns). Gold: the World Bank's monthly average price. Bitcoin and ether: the Coin Metrics price on the last day of each month. Cash: dollars kept at home, earning nothing.
- Monthly steps. Money goes in at a month's value and the result is read at the end month's value. Shiller's S&P 500 prices, the bond yields and gold are monthly averages, which smooth out moves inside a month: the real highs and lows were somewhat more extreme.
- Worst fall is the largest drop from a high to a later low within the period, using the monthly values; “real” also counts inflation. Falls inside a month are not seen.
- Today's dollars are Oct 2026 dollars: a value is multiplied by the rise in US consumer prices (CPI-U; before 1913 the Warren and Pearson reconstruction) from its date to Oct 2026. “Real” returns are after this inflation.
- No taxes, fees or spreads. Real investors paid commissions, fund fees, and taxes on dividends, coupons and gains, so they kept less than shown here.
- Preliminary data. S&P 500 dividends from July 2026 on are estimated from the last known value. Shiller's notes on the latest month: Oct price is Oct 2nd close; Sept/Oct CPI estimated; Oct GS10 is Oct 2nd value.